Posts Tagged ‘sales volume’

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Sales Volume in ’09 Hits New Low**

January 6, 2010

Why the double asterisk?  We’ll get to that in a moment.

Sales Volume Comparison (click to enlarge)

Sales Volume Comparison (click to enlarge)

Observations:

  1. Single family home sales have been on the decline since 2003 and appear to have bottomed (or at least flattened) in ’08 & ’09.
  2. Condo sales volume tends to be more sensitive to market changes (hence the bumpier road) and continued to decline in ’09.  Declines have been consistent since 2004.
  3. TIC sales volume has steadily increased over time, with a big push around 2004/2005, as Fractional Lending products became available.  TIC volume dipped during the downturn along with other property types, but appears to have flattened.

Now, for those asterisks.  As we zoom in and take a look at 2009, Read the rest of this entry ?

Posted in Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments »

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Market’s Picking Up… But How Much?

August 12, 2009

If you follow the real estate market, you’ve probably heard that things have been picking up these last few months.  Q1 2009 was ice cold.  The market began to thaw in Q2, and here in Q3 we’re continuing to see a lot of action.  Most of the churning is taking place below $1M, but there has been a higher incidence of luxury homes selling these past couple of months.

Is the blaze beginning to subside?

Is the blaze beginning to subside?

How much has the market picked up?  We set out to find the answer using a very simple approach.  We tallied up all the Single Family Home and Condo sales taking place per month dating back to June 2006.  Here’s a look at the trend:

Read the rest of this entry ?

Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

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2009 : A Rough and Tumble Year

June 29, 2009

Here are some interesting facts and figures we ran today that corroborate the story of two markets, which we wrote about a few days ago.  What exactly did we look at?

We isolated all sales that have taken place from January 1 through June 1 and compared 2008′s performance to 2009′s.  The sales were divided up by price bracket.  Our goal was to see which price brackets have seen the biggest drops (or rises) in activity since this time last year.

Sales volume by price bracket - click to enlarge

Sales volume by price bracket - click to enlarge

  • The number of transactions in the sub $500K range is actually UP from last year… by 21.82%.
  • The number of transactions in the $500,000 to $749,000 range is down 13.55% from last year.
  • The $750,000 to $999,999 bracket is down 45.02% from last year.
  • The $1M to $1,249,000 bracket is down 55.38% from last year.
  • The $1.25M to $1,499,000 bracket is down 60.14% from last year.
  • The $1.5M to $1,999,999 bracket is down 60% from last year.
  • The $2M to $2,999,000 bracket is down the most: 64.89% from last year.
  • The $3M to $4.9M bracket is down 41.18% from last year.
  • And the $5M+ bracket is down the second most, with a 64.29% decease in transactions from this time last year.

Final Thoughts

For all price brackets, the number of transactions is down 32% year over year.  Since that seems to be the norm, it could be deduced that anything less is a sign of relative strength while anything more is a sign of relative weakness.

Sales on the low end continue to show signs of strength in 2009.  Essentially, homes priced less than Read the rest of this entry ?

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Low End Smokin’, High End Hurtin’

April 9, 2009

The first quarter has been interesting.  We’ve broken the market into price segments and tallied up the action going on in each bracket.  Then we compared this year’s first quarter activity to the first quarter of 2008.  The numbers are telling, and they probably explain why medians have come down so far this year.  Here are the bullet points from our research:

  • Activity in the lowest price bracket, under $499,999, actually increased by nearly 15% year over year.
  • The next bracket, $500,000 thru $999,999 saw a drop in activity of nearly 29% year over year.
  • $1M thru $1,999,999 saw a more significant drop in activity, with a 55.78% decline in the number of transactions compared to Q1 2008.
  • And the highest portion of the market, $2M and above, is hurting the most, with a 71.08% drop in activity!
  • Total Sales Volume for all price brackets is down nearly 35% year over year thus far.
  • With more action taking place on the low end of the market and less on the high end, it’s no wonder why median prices are down so much this year.
After putting the market under the microscope, we've determined that the low end is smokin'!

After putting the market under the microscope, we've determined that the low end is smokin'!

When we published our Q1 2009 Report, we mentioned that we had noticed these trends in the marketplace, and now we have the numbers to prove the point.  This is very useful information if you’re in the market right now.  As we mentioned in our report, the time is ripening for buyers to get into the higher ends of the market.  Jumbo money has slightly loosened up recently and rates have eased.  If you’re selling on the low end, it could be a good time for you as well.

Want the full spreadsheet?  Click HERE.

*Please note that the total number of sales is for San Francisco only, and property types include single family homes, condominiums, stock cooperatives, lofts, TICs, and 2-4 unit buildings.

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Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Tips | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

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Sales Pace Quickening

April 2, 2009

We’ve tallied up all sales taking place since the first of the year in San Francisco and ranked them by neighborhood.  Totals include sales of single family homes, condos, TICs, lofts, stock cooperatives, 2-4 unit buildings, 5+ unit buildings, lots, and acreage.  Here are the rankings:

Has the pace of sales quickened recently?

Has the pace of sales quickened recently?

Rank Neighborhood Number of Sales
1. Noe Valley 44
2. Potrero Hill 23
T-3 Excelsior 20
T-3 Bayview 20
T-5 South Beach 17
T-5 Inner Mission 17
T-5 Portola 17
T-5 Crocker Amazon 17
9. Bernal Heights 16
T-10 Visitacion Valley 15
T-10 Pacific Heights 15

To see the remainder of the list and commentary, continue reading –>

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Posted in Countdowns & Rankings, Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments »

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Sales Activity by Market Segment

March 10, 2009

There is a lot of talk going around lately about activity on the low end of the market beginning to strengthen.  Most people attribute this to the bargain hunters and investors snatching up foreclosed properties, REOs, and short sales.  Curious to see what’s happening here in San Francisco, we set out to crunch some numbers and get some answers.

Which market segments are asleep?

Which market segments are asleep?

Our goal was to see which price ranges have experienced the highest declines in activity since peak.  We tallied up the numbers of sales in each segment per year.  We found the low end of the market experiencing major declines in activity while the high end being less affected.  Here are the results:

  • $0 to $499,999 – This segment has experienced a drop in sales activity of 75.69% since peak.
  • $500,000 to $999,999 – Has experienced a drop in sales activity of 46.18% since peak.
  • $1M to $1,499,999 – Has experienced a drop in sales activity of 37.88% since peak.
  • $1.5M to $1,999,999 – Has experienced a drop in sales activity of 36.90% since peak.
  • $2M to $2,499,999 – Has experienced a drop in sales activity of 16.27% since peak.
  • $2.5M to $2,999,999 – Has experienced a drop in sales activity of 14% since peak.
  • $3M and above – Has experienced a drop in sales activity of 14.97% since peak.

Because we looked at the data on an annual level, 2008 was our last complete year for the analysis.  Next time, we’ll zero in on the last 5 months to get a more updated view of the market and see if the aforementioned claims are true.  Speaking of claims, we’re also hearing that the high end of the market is now going through trials and tribulations that the low end has already experienced.  Either way, the data above tells a good (or not so good) story of what has happened in San Francisco through the end of 2008.

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Sales Activity Since the Stock Market Crash of October

December 17, 2008

It seems the question on everyone’s mind is how the stock market crash of October 2008 has affected activity in the local real estate market, ie: numbers of home sales.  We set out to find the answer, and here’s how we did it.

Are buyers and sellers in a stalemate?

Are buyers and sellers in a stalemate?

First, we limited our search from November 1 through December 16.  The reason we chose November 1st is because there is a lag of activity in the market.  Many people were in escrow during the crash of  early October and ended up closing in late October despite conditions.  What we wanted to find out is how many people were willing to move forward with a purchase after the crash rocked everyone’s boat, hence the November 1 start date.  The reason we capped the search at December 16 is because today is the 17th and the 16th was our last full business day.

Next, we constrained our numbers to the City of San Francisco only.  No outlying areas are included.  Property types in these numbers include single family homes, condominiums, tics, lofts, and stock cooperatives.

Lastly, to get a point of comparison, we ran this query for each year during the exact same time-frame, going all the way back to 1995.  How did it stack up?

Sales Activity (click to enlarge)

Sales Activity is at a LOW (click to enlarge)

What does this data tell us?  Read the rest of this entry ?

Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Tips | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

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