Posts Tagged ‘real estate trends’

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Getting Granular in Noe Valley

September 1, 2009

Noe Valley - courtesy of Wikimedia

Looking down towards Noe Valley - courtesy of Wikimedia

In Noe Valley there have been 85 single family home sales recorded in MLS for 2009.  You know what that means!  Time for a trending analysis, as we have a nice long string of sales for the year.  What did we look at?

We calculated the median sales price for single family homes in Noe for the period of January 1 through September 1 of each year dating back to 1995.  A trend became clear after plotting the values on a graph.  But what about inflation?  We added a second line to show what median values look like over the same time period when inflation is accounted for.  The results?

Noe Valley SFH Trends (click to enlarge)

Noe Valley SFH Trends (click to enlarge)

  • In inflation-adjusted terms, Noe’s 2009 median is somewhere between 2003 and 2004.
  • Values have come down 22.05% from peak. Read the rest of this entry ?
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Market’s Picking Up… But How Much?

August 12, 2009

If you follow the real estate market, you’ve probably heard that things have been picking up these last few months.  Q1 2009 was ice cold.  The market began to thaw in Q2, and here in Q3 we’re continuing to see a lot of action.  Most of the churning is taking place below $1M, but there has been a higher incidence of luxury homes selling these past couple of months.

Is the blaze beginning to subside?

Is the blaze beginning to subside?

How much has the market picked up?  We set out to find the answer using a very simple approach.  We tallied up all the Single Family Home and Condo sales taking place per month dating back to June 2006.  Here’s a look at the trend:

Read the rest of this entry ?

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Year Over Year Medians By District

June 25, 2009

As most of you know, the San Francisco Association of Realtors has divided the city up into 10 market areas. Curious to find out what’s been transpiring on a district by district basis here in ’09, we decided to run a little analysis.  Our goal?  To take a look at the year over year performance of each district, using median sales price as our yardstick.  Here’s what we did:

  1. Find the median sales price in each district from January 1, 2008 through June 1, 2008.  Record it.
  2. Find the median sales price in each district from January 1, 2009 through June 1, 2009.  Record it.
  3. Calculate the year over year change for each district.
  4. Rank the 10 districts based on performance over this period.
How are the 10 district faring from last year?  Photo courtesy of tenyearsofmylife.com
How are the 10 districts faring from last year? Photo courtesy of tenyearsofmylife.com

*Please note:  You’ll need to familiarize yourself with THIS map in order to understand the MLS districts.  All sales come from the MLS.  These do not include private transactions or sales taking place at new developments. Property types included in the analysis include single family homes, condos, TIC’s, lofts, and stock cooperatives.

What did we find?  Continue reading for the chart –> Read the rest of this entry ?

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And the survey says… ?

June 19, 2009

The University of Wisconsin just completed a survey which was released by the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE).  The survey involved questioning the AFIRE’s 200 members regarding their feelings on the US real estate market, which cities would be first to recover, and when recovery would begin.  Here are some bullet points, and to check out the entire article courtesy of CNBC, click HERE.

First Cities To Recover:

  1. Washington D.C. (favored heavily)
  2. New York, NY.
  3. San Francisco, CA.
  4. Boston, MA.
  5. Los Angeles, CA.

Timing for Real Estate Recovery:

  • Most respondents feel that recovery will begin in late Q2 2010.
  • Investments during the latter half of ’09 will out-strip investments made in the first half of ’09.

Sectors to Recover First:

  1. Office Sector
  2. Multi-Family Sector
  3. Industrial Sector

"And the survey says!"

"And the survey says!"

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Time To Watch The Sunset…

June 5, 2009

Wish we were referring to a magical moment as the sun dips below the Pacific horizon on a gorgeous evening… but we’re referring to “The Sunset”.  Sales price trends in the neighborhood have long been thought to be a decent barometer of the overall San Francisco housing market.  Why?  The Sunset is a large, fairly stable neighborhood with many similar homes selling around San Francisco’s median.

So let’s take a look at the median sales price from January 1, 2009 through June 1, 2009.  And better yet, lets compare this year’s median to that of years past, over the same time period.  This should give us a glimpse into present day conditions, not just in the Sunset, but into the San Francisco market as a whole (if the aforementioned theory holds any weight).  And as our readers know, we’d love to go back further than 1995 but MLS does not support that.  Here is the trend:

Read the rest of this entry ?

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Granite Counters & Stainless Steel in Dorms?

June 1, 2009

It’s happening.  An article published by the Associated Press on Friday discusses how empty condo projects are now attracting the attention of higher education institutions around the country.  Why?  With the projects sitting empty and no sales occurring, some schools have been able to score killer deals on buildings, which will serve as student housing.  HERE is the article, but if you don’t have time, here are a few quotes:

“This is a bonanza of an opportunity … for universities to acquire the space they desperately need,” said Dan Fasulo, managing director of Real Capital Analytics.


“They can’t sell them, they can’t mothball them, they can’t bulldoze them,” said Jack McCabe, a Florida-based real estate analyst. “Developers right now are looking for every way not to lose their projects into foreclosure.”


“To build a facility of this quality for a university, there’s no way we could have done that for that purchase price,” said Nichole Johnson, a Capital University spokeswoman.

Students at Johnson & Wales University will pay yearly rents of $10,383 for one-bedroom apartments and $9,249 to share a two-bedroom unit — comparable prices to on-campus dorms.


People who run colleges and universities are pretty smart folks, and they’re seeing opportunity in today’s market that’s just too good to pass up.  Good for them.

As a last point:  If you’ve lost your job, maybe it’s a good time to head back to school and live better than most.  After all, today’s average stainless steel fridge holds about 4 times as much beer as the old mini-fridges the rest of had in our dorms (if you were lucky enough to even have a mini-fridge).  Oh to be a student again…

InsideSFRealEstate_49 Jun. 01 12.40

College is serious business

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More Evidence the Luxury Market is Tanking

May 18, 2009

About six weeks ago we wrote about our observations that the high end of the market is hurting while the low end is experiencing a mini-boom.  We now have more evidence that this trend is taking place.

Terradatum, a company that crunches and publishes real estate statistics, puts together a list of spreadsheets and sends it out to the SFAR (San Francisco Association of Realtors) each month.  We borrowed some data from Terradatum’s most recent email blast and built our own graph.  We were interested in seeing how San Francisco’s housing market has changed over the past two years.

How badly is the luxury market hurting?

How badly is the luxury market hurting?

First, we took the median list price for single family homes in the City and plotted the monthly points over the past two years.  Then we took the median sales prices for single family homes in the City and plotted those monthly points over the past two years.  The results were pretty nifty.  Not only did we find a trend, but we actually identified the cross-over point… the point in time where the luxury market started to recede and the low end of the market began to pack more oomph. Read the rest of this entry ?

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10 Reasons Why Being A First-Time Buyer Rocks

May 4, 2009

Now, we’re not the typical schmucks who run around saying “It’s a great time to buy!” no matter who we’re talking to and no matter the market condition.  Each person has a unique set of circumstances and what makes sense for one person might not make sense for another.

BUT, there are some distinct advantages for being a first time buyer at this point in time.  “First time buyer” in most circles (including the IRS) means you have not owned real estate within the past 3 years.  We’ve put together a list of reasons why the time could be ripe if you’re looking to get into the market.

Take it from a trustworthy salesman... It's a GREAT time to be a first time buyer!

Take it from a trustworthy salesman... It's a GREAT time to be a first time buyer!! Call now!!

  1. Lots to choose from. Today’s market conditions present buyers with more options than they have had in the past.  Buyers are able to be pickier and do not have to worry so much about competing offers.
  2. Speaking of competing offers, Due Diligence is back in vogue! Oh yes, with fewer offers being made and less competition amongst buyers in the marketplace, you can now get by with actually performing your inspections.  In the days where every seller got 10 offers, they would choose the one with the least number of contingencies and the best price.  That meant if you had inspections written into your offer they could cast it aside into the pile of “loser” offers, unless of course your price was unbeatable.  But then, that probably meant you were overpaying!
  3. Speaking of overpaying, today’s low prices and low sales volume mean that many sellers are backed into a corner and you can scoop up a bargain. This limits your risk of overpaying.
  4. Speaking of buying low, because you’re a first time home buyer, you can buy low without also having to sell low. This point probably needs no further elaboration.
  5. All cash buyers won’t knock you out of your dream home as often as they used to.  This goes back to less competition in the marketplace.  It used to be that an “all cash buyer” had a leg up on anyone else and their offer would get accepted above and beyond plain old regular folks’.  Although this tendency remains, there is less competition in the market meaning that the likelihood of an all cash buyer swooping in on your new pad is fairly low. Read the rest of this entry ?
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Current Days on Market (DOM) Trends

April 27, 2009

Days on Market (DOM) is the amount of time it takes a particular property to sell.  The clock starts the moment the property hits the market and ends the moment it goes into “pending” status. Days on Market is a funny metric in our MLS system.  We’ve discussed its shortcomings in previous posts and although we’d like to see some changes made to how it is measured, we still take a look at the trends on a regular basis.

We tracked DOM through April 26, 2009 (yesterday) and arrived at median and average figures.  Next, we lined up this year’s performance thus far with the performance of years past.  We isolated the time period from January 1 through April 26 during each year so we could have an apples to apples comparison.

Are homes taking longer to sell in 2009?  Or is the market heating up?  DOM should give us some insight into the current trend.  When markets are hot, DOM is low because it takes less time to sell a property.  When markets get cold, DOM creeps up.  Let’s take a look at what’s going on here in San Francisco:

DOM Trends for Single Family Homes (click to enlarge)

DOM Trends for Single Family Homes (click to enlarge)

This chart shows us DOM trends over the past 15 years.  Clearly, 2009 has not shown any signs of heating up as compared to years past.  Matter of fact, it has posted much weaker numbers than just a year ago.  So where is the opportunistic info in this?  Our take is that when sellers spend more time on the market, as they are now, they get a little nervous and are more willing to negotiate.  This of course is a general statement – each home presents a unique set of circumstances.  But the numbers here are glaringly obvious.

How about the same trend for Condominiums? Read the rest of this entry ?

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What can we learn from Miami?

April 15, 2009

An article on CNN Money the other day got us thinking about the overall health of the San Francisco real estate market.  Sure, prices are down.  No market has been immune to the country’s economic downturn.  But some have been hit with a cold while others are bedridden with pneumonia.

Time for a check up

Time for a check up

The article mentioned above talks about the Miami real estate market.  Some tidbits:

  • There are 13,200 homes for sale in Miami right now.
  • There are 21,600 condos for sale in Miami right now.

We’re not alarmed by these numbers… after all, Miami is a very different market than San Francisco and comparing the two is not exactly “apples to apples”.  However, there is a way we can normalize data between the two markets to control for the differences.  We can accomplish this by looking at MSI, or months supply of inventory.  We’ve written about this metric before.  Basically, months supply of inventory is a measure of how many months it would take to sell off all of today’s inventory (active listings) if new listings ceased coming on the market immediately.  It is calculated by taking the total active listings in a market and dividing it by the number of homes under contract.  For example, lets say there are 10 condos for sale in a market and 5 have gone into contract during the current month.  This market has just 2 months supply of inventory, which is pretty hot.

Markets that have 0-3 months supply of inventory are considered hot.  3-6 months is in balance, 6-9 months is cool, and 9 or more months is cold.

When we compare Miami to San Francisco, here’s what we currently see:

  • Miami currently has a 52-month glut, I, I mean, supply of condos.  That means it would take over 4 years for all of today’s active condo listings to sell if new units stopped coming on the market immediately.  Add to that shadow inventory, foreclosures (which are a huge problem there) and pocket listings and… Holy toledo!!  Ok, now we’re alarmed.
  • San Francisco, according to the highly respected real estate analysis company Terradatum, has Read the rest of this entry ?
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