Posts Tagged ‘median sales prices’

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Time To Watch The Sunset…

June 5, 2009

Wish we were referring to a magical moment as the sun dips below the Pacific horizon on a gorgeous evening… but we’re referring to “The Sunset”.  Sales price trends in the neighborhood have long been thought to be a decent barometer of the overall San Francisco housing market.  Why?  The Sunset is a large, fairly stable neighborhood with many similar homes selling around San Francisco’s median.

So let’s take a look at the median sales price from January 1, 2009 through June 1, 2009.  And better yet, lets compare this year’s median to that of years past, over the same time period.  This should give us a glimpse into present day conditions, not just in the Sunset, but into the San Francisco market as a whole (if the aforementioned theory holds any weight).  And as our readers know, we’d love to go back further than 1995 but MLS does not support that.  Here is the trend:

Read the rest of this entry ?

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April Analysis

May 7, 2009

Attention statistic addicts:  We’ve got some numbers here that will update you on the current state of the market.

How close are we to 1/2 price?

How close are we to 1/2 price?

Here is our method:

First we isolated the month of April in our analysis and ran median sales prices for single family homes as well as condominiums dating back to 1995.  Next, we inflation adjusted the medians so that we could control for the changing value of the dollar over time.  Last, we plotted the points on a chart to come up with a trend.  The numbers represent the San Francisco resale market and here’s what we found: Read the rest of this entry ?

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On a Mission to Analyze the Mission

March 20, 2009

As you know, the pace of change occurring in our country’s economic/financial system has been monumental during the past 6 months.  In analyzing real estate trends, it’s nice to be able to look at the most recent data to gain insight on how these huge forces impact values locally.  The challenge is having enough data to see a trend and allowing enough time for the forces at play to affect prices (there is undoubtedly a lag).

We looked at median values for Condos/Co-ops/TICs/Lofts in the Inner Mission.  In order to incorporate recent economic forces, we compared the past six months performance to that of years past.  Beginning on September 21, 2008 and running through March 20, 2009, we calculated the median value for the neighborhood and then compared the results to the same time period going back 11 years.

It's time to "analyze this"...

It's time to "analyze this"...

Could we have limited our results to less than 6 months?  Actually yes, we wanted to.  Three months history would be more reliable.  However the challenge was that there were not enough sales (data points) to create a reliable trend.  We see the magic number of sales to create a reliable median value trend to be somewhere around 25.

Could we have gone back more than 11 years?  We did, but we found that the early years had very little data (less than 20 sales during this time frame per year) and thus they were left out.  And of course pre-1995, MLS has no recorded sales as it was not the glorious database it is today… it was a huge periodical publication.

What we’re left with in this particular study is a 6-month analysis going back 11 years.  Here are the results for the Inner Mission: Read the rest of this entry ?

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Getting Granular in NoPa

January 16, 2009

My my, it’s been a busy week!  My wife and I moved yesterday– so no time for blogging as we sought the answers to more important questions such as “hey, which box is our clean underwear packed in?”  Thankfully, we’ve located them so we’re back up and running today.  I had a little time amidst the unpacking to take a look at one of my favorite “renaissance” areas of the City, North Panhandle (aka, NoPa).

Moving is tough work!

Moving is tough work. That's me in the front, wife in the back.

The ‘hood has been transforming for many years now.  With architecture that wows at just about every corner, NoPa is home to much history and adds some amazing local color to our landscape.  A few trendy spots have set up shop in the nabe and the Divis corridor is happening.

Condos are prevalent in the area, so we looked at trends in median values over the past 14 years.  If you’re curious as to the trends, keep reading –>

Read the rest of this entry ?

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2008 Neighborhood Rankings – Part I

December 15, 2008

We went through all 85 neighborhoods in San Francisco (as determined by the MLS), calculating the median sales prices for 2008 (January 1 through December 13).  Included in the medians are single family homes, condominiums, stock cooperatives, lofts, and TIC property types.

Where is your neighborhood on the totem pole?

Where is your neighborhood on the totem pole?

The rankings were, shall we say, quite interesting, and we’ve decided to take a look at this list periodically to see how it’s changing.  We also have another ranking of all 86 neighborhoods coming out, so stay tuned.

Rank Neighborhood Median SP
1. Sea Cliff $3,150,000
2. Presidio Heights $2,210,000
3. Clarendon Heights $1,995,000
4. St. Francis Wood $1,995,000
5. Sherwood Forest $1,690,000
6. Jordan Park/Laurel Heights $1,650,000
7. Balboa Terrace $1,500,000
8. Monterey Heights $1,487,500
9. Cow Hollow $1,450,000
10. Forest Hill $1,400,000

To see the remainder of the list, continue reading –> Read the rest of this entry ?

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Appreciation and Hold Times : Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific and Presidio Heights

December 7, 2008

District 7 is one of the most sought-after areas of the City.  Beautiful architecture, amazing views, shop-lined streets, and pricey homes all abound here.  The neighborhoods in District 7 include the Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights, and Presidio Heights.

District 7 is home to Cow Hollow.  Clearly, this Cow has been shopping there...

District 7 is home to Cow Hollow. Clearly, this Cow has been shopping there...

We were curious to see how condominiums have appreciated or depreciated over time in the district.  We studied the median sales prices for condos in the district, dating back to 1995.  We plotted the points on a chart to gain insight into the overall trend, and then figured out how much appreciation you would have gained/lost if you owned for X amount of time.  Keep in mind that these are all based on the median sale price each year.  With that said, here is a look at the data:

District 7 Neighborhoods - Median Sales Prices for Condos Over Time

District 7 Neighborhoods - Median Sales Prices for Condos Over Time (click to enlarge)

Keep reading for the appreciation and hold time chart –> Read the rest of this entry ?

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Getting Granular in Central Sunset

December 5, 2008

The Sunset… it’s the largest district in San Francisco and is divided into 3 parts, Inner, Central and Outer.  The district registers high on the cute-single-family-home factor.  Ironically, the Sunset is known for its persistent fog.

Wikipedia)
The Sunset District (photo credit: Wikipedia)

Central Sunset shares many of the same characteristics with the Inner and Outer Sunset.  Most of the housing stock was built from the 1920′s through the 1950′s on the streets’ perfect grid pattern.  We were curious to see what median sales prices for single family homes have done in the Central Sunset over time.  Here’s what we found:

Read the rest of this entry ?

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Getting Granular in Miraloma Park

December 3, 2008

Miraloma Park is smack in the middle of San Francisco (ok, maybe a smidge south).  Home to many cute San Francisco houses and nestled in between Mt. Davidson and Glen Canyon Park, this area is especially attractive for families.  We’re often surprised about how many people don’t know where this little area is.  For your reference, we’ve got some maps below:

Miraloma Park - Stuck in the Middle With You

Miraloma Park - Stuck in the Middle With You

Miraloma Park Boundaries

Miraloma Park Boundaries

We wanted to see what single family home prices have done in Miraloma Park over the past 14 years.  We looked at the median sales price for each year starting in 1995, working our way up to 2008.  Because we wanted to include 2008, we capped each year at December the 2nd, so we could have an even comparison.  What type of trend did we find in Miraloma Park’s single family homes? Read the rest of this entry ?

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Getting Granular in the Inner Mission

December 1, 2008

The Inner Mission (aka The Mission) is one of San Francisco’s most unique and happening neighborhoods.  While it does suffer from higher crime than other parts of the City, that does not keep people from frequenting and living in this amazing area.  Tons of great restaurants, bars, coffee houses, and clubs line the sidewalks for miles.  Home to hipsters and habaneros, there’s something going on in the Mission 24 hours a day.

The Inner Mission as seen from nearby Liberty Hill (click to enlarge)
The Inner Mission as seen from nearby Liberty Hill (click to enlarge)

We looked at median sales price trends for condominiums in the Mission over the past 14 years.  Because the neighborhood caters to a younger crowd and is convenient to Penninsula commuters, we were especially curious to see how the dot com crash of ’01 affected median values in the nabe.  What did we find? Read the rest of this entry ?

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Getting Granular in SoMa

November 22, 2008

We hope you’re enjoying our series, “Getting Granular.“  After all, real estate trends on the neighborhood level are what’s important to most homeowners and people considering buying.  We’ve been surprised at some of the results in our analyses, and this installment is no exception.

Looking at median sales prices in SoMa (South of Market), we expected to see a decline.  SoMa is a funny neighborhood.  First off, it is pretty massive (by SF standards).  Second, it is divided into East SoMa (which is a bit nicer), and West SoMa (which is a bit grittier).  Third, it is a neighborhood in transition.  There are many other reasons why SoMa is a unique neighborhood, but we’ll keep it to those three for now.

Are prices in SoMa heading south?
Are prices in SoMa headed south?

Lofts and condos are king in SoMa.  The neighborhood may not appear like much to outsiders who drive the streets, but if they only knew what was behind some of those façades, they’d see that the ‘hood has some truly spectacular properties.

Because SoMa is largely in transition, and we’re in a down economy, we expected to see a bit of stagnation and possibly a decline in median values.  Improvement of transitional areas tends to ride the coat tails of a growing economy — and we all know that’s not going on right now.  So what did we find?  Read the rest of this entry ?

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Getting Granular in Nob Hill

November 19, 2008

There’s only one neighborhood that truly looks down on the Financial District, and that is Nob Hill.  Fancy balls, galas, crystal chandeliers, and velvet ropes spring to mind.  The area boasts some of the most incredible views of San Francisco and has the high-priced property to go along with them.

Looking up California Street, which climbs Nob Hill (Courtesy of Bill Storage photo)

Looking up California Street, which climbs Nob Hill (Courtesy of Bill Storage photo)

We researched median sales prices in Nob Hill.  The area is largely comprised of condos, co-ops, and TICs.  Therefore, single family homes were left out of the analysis.  What did we find? Read the rest of this entry ?

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Love / Haight Relationship

October 30, 2008

We have a new guest post on San Francisco’s popular real estate blog, theFrontSteps.  This time we took a close look at condominium trends in the Haight/Ashbury neighborhood over the past 15 years and added our colorful commentary.  Click HERE to read the article.

For more “Getting Granular” articles, click HERE.

To share this article, click here –> Read the rest of this entry ?

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What’s Going On With Stroller Valley, er um, Noe Valley Prices?

October 19, 2008
Vroom Vrooom

Vroom Vrooom

So what’s the deal with Noe Valley?  Has it demonstrated resilience in the face of the down market?  Or is it cruising for a bruising?

We wanted to find out, so we ran some numbers to give us the scoop.  Our analysis consisted of looking at median sales prices in Noe for both single family homes and condos dating back seven years.  We really wanted to include the current year in the data, so we capped each year at October 15th.  All data comes straight from MLS (we don’t make this stuff up, folks).  Here is a look at the chart:

Single Family Home vs. Condo Median Sales Prices in Noe Valley thru Oct. 15

Single Family Home vs. Condo Median Sales Prices in Noe Valley thru October 15 - Click Picture to Zoom In

The median sales price for single family homes in 2007 was $1,383,000 compared to this year’s Read the rest of this entry ?

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