Posts Tagged ‘districts’

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Depreciation by District Over the Past 5 Months

March 8, 2009

In case you’ve been living under a rock, our country’s financial system has undergone radical change during the past five months.  The pace at which change is occurring is akin to a forest fire.  We’re hoping for a fast burn that clears the way for new growth.  At this time, however, the fire’s still going.  Maybe not quite as strong as it was at climax, but definitely still going.

What's going on in the economy isn't exactly a "controlled" burn...

What's going on in the economy isn't exactly a "controlled burn"...

Because of the rapid changes going on, we crave the freshest information.  In the interest of seeing what’s going on right now, we created an analysis that you may find veeerrrry interesting.  Here’s what we did:

  1. List out all the sales that have occurred in San Francisco’s 10 MLS districts from October 1, 2008 to March 1, 2009 (that’s five months worth of sales).
  2. Find the median sales price in each district over this period.  Record it.
  3. Follow steps 1 & 2 for each district over the same time period going back to the year 2003.
  4. Find when prices peaked for each district.
  5. Calculate how far prices have fallen from peak.
  6. Rank the 10 districts based on performance over this period.

*Please note:  You’ll need to familiarize yourself with THIS map in order to understand the MLS districts.  All sales come from the MLS.  These do not include private transactions or sales taking place at new developments.  All numbers were adjusted for inflation to control for the changing value of the dollar.  This helps us gain better insight into true market behavior.  Property types included in the analysis include single family homes, condos, TIC’s, lofts, and stock cooperatives.

Now that you know the method, how about those results?

Read the rest of this entry ?

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SF Real Estate Officially On Sale

February 2, 2009

We’re having fun with our new formulas that give us the ability to adjust sales prices based on the Consumer Price Index.  Just what is inflation adjusting?

Let’s say your parents bought a place in 1990 for $100,000 and today it is worth $500,000.  One might assume that the value has increased $400,000.  However, the value of the dollar has changed over the past 18 years, so we need to correct for those changes in order to determine how much true appreciation their home has accrued.  What we find when we adjust for inflation is that $100,000 in 1990 is equivalent to $162,529 today.  This changes the appreciation rate a bit.  The home has actually appreciated $337,471 in real terms, not $400,000.  Adjusting for inflation gives us a more accurate depiction of what the market is doing.

Balloons aren't the only things that inflate...

Balloons aren't the only things that inflate...

We wanted to revisit an old post that was one of our most popular on the blog to date.  We discussed how much home prices have come down in San Francisco, and have since taken the data, inflation adjusted it, and have some new numbers (although very similar conclusions to last time).

Keep reading, this is good stuff!

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UPDATED : Are sellers getting what they are asking?

January 5, 2009

Ever wondered how close homes are selling to their asking prices?  Especially in these times?  We broke down the stats and are here to report the findings.  But first, here’s how we did it:

We limited the search to the last 3 months worth of sales.  The reason?  It is recent activity we’re concerned with, not stuff that happened a year ago.  The dates queried were 10/1/2008 through 12/31/2008.  We took the average sales price for all property types in each of the city’s 10 districts, and divided it by the average listing (aka: asking) price for all property types.  The resulting figure tells us at what percent homes are selling in relation to their asking prices.  For example, if an area averaged a $1,000,000 list price over this period, and homes sold on average for $900,000, we could say that homes are selling at an average of 90% of their asking price.  Makes sense, right?  We then did the exact same thing, except on the second go-round, used medians instead of averages.

Pleeeeasse give me my asking price!

Pleeeeasse give me my asking price! (photo courtesy of funnygames.biz)

So here’s the data for each district.  What do you expect to see?  Homes selling at 75% of asking?  85%?  125%??   Here are the results: Read the rest of this entry ?

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