Posts Tagged ‘analysis’
April 27, 2009
Days on Market (DOM) is the amount of time it takes a particular property to sell. The clock starts the moment the property hits the market and ends the moment it goes into “pending” status. Days on Market is a funny metric in our MLS system. We’ve discussed its shortcomings in previous posts and although we’d like to see some changes made to how it is measured, we still take a look at the trends on a regular basis.
We tracked DOM through April 26, 2009 (yesterday) and arrived at median and average figures. Next, we lined up this year’s performance thus far with the performance of years past. We isolated the time period from January 1 through April 26 during each year so we could have an apples to apples comparison.
Are homes taking longer to sell in 2009? Or is the market heating up? DOM should give us some insight into the current trend. When markets are hot, DOM is low because it takes less time to sell a property. When markets get cold, DOM creeps up. Let’s take a look at what’s going on here in San Francisco:
DOM Trends for Single Family Homes (click to enlarge)
This chart shows us DOM trends over the past 15 years. Clearly, 2009 has not shown any signs of heating up as compared to years past. Matter of fact, it has posted much weaker numbers than just a year ago. So where is the opportunistic info in this? Our take is that when sellers spend more time on the market, as they are now, they get a little nervous and are more willing to negotiate. This of course is a general statement – each home presents a unique set of circumstances. But the numbers here are glaringly obvious.
How about the same trend for Condominiums? Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009, analysis, days on market, dom, opportunities, real estate trends, san francisco, san francisco real estate | Leave a Comment »
April 5, 2009
Where have we been the past couple of days? On a Bahamas beach swinging in a hammock under a couple of palm trees, umbrella drink in hand? Not quite. We’ve been knee-deep in spreadsheets, crunching numbers for the first quarter so we can bring you our Q1 2009 Report.
The findings are very interesting and is worth a read if you follow the market closely. Don’t worry, it’s just a 1-pager. Our Q1 2009 Report is available in a PDF file, downloadable here:
Click this sentence to download the Q1 2009 San Francisco Real Estate Report
Someday.... someday....
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Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Quarterly Reports | Tagged 1st quarter, analysis, first quarter, q1 2009 report, real estate prices, san francisco, san francisco real estate, trends | 3 Comments »
March 8, 2009
In case you’ve been living under a rock, our country’s financial system has undergone radical change during the past five months. The pace at which change is occurring is akin to a forest fire. We’re hoping for a fast burn that clears the way for new growth. At this time, however, the fire’s still going. Maybe not quite as strong as it was at climax, but definitely still going.
What's going on in the economy isn't exactly a "controlled burn"...
Because of the rapid changes going on, we crave the freshest information. In the interest of seeing what’s going on right now, we created an analysis that you may find veeerrrry interesting. Here’s what we did:
- List out all the sales that have occurred in San Francisco’s 10 MLS districts from October 1, 2008 to March 1, 2009 (that’s five months worth of sales).
- Find the median sales price in each district over this period. Record it.
- Follow steps 1 & 2 for each district over the same time period going back to the year 2003.
- Find when prices peaked for each district.
- Calculate how far prices have fallen from peak.
- Rank the 10 districts based on performance over this period.
*Please note: You’ll need to familiarize yourself with THIS map in order to understand the MLS districts. All sales come from the MLS. These do not include private transactions or sales taking place at new developments. All numbers were adjusted for inflation to control for the changing value of the dollar. This helps us gain better insight into true market behavior. Property types included in the analysis include single family homes, condos, TIC’s, lofts, and stock cooperatives.
Now that you know the method, how about those results?
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Posted in Countdowns & Rankings, Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Tips | Tagged analysis, depreciation, districts, median sales price, rankings, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips, trends, value decline, values | 2 Comments »
February 17, 2009
This morning we took a pulse reading of the local market to see the distribution of the 1,484 homes for sale in San Francisco. Homes included in our analysis include condos, TICs, lofts, stock co-ops, and single family residences. Keep in mind, homes not advertised on the MLS (such as pocket listings, FSBOs, and new developments) are not reflected in this data.
Current Inventory Distribution by asking price (click to enlarge)
- Listings asking over $1 million account for exactly one quarter of all homes for sale in San Francisco.
- Listings asking $500,000 to $999,999 account for over half (53.77%) of all homes for sale in San Francisco.
- Listings asking $500,000 to $749,999 account for 31.60% of all actives. This is the largest category when breaking the market down in $250,000 increments.
- The next largest is the $750,000 to $999,999 category, posting 22.17% of all actives.
- Listings in the ultra-luxury market (above $4 million) account for 1.82% of all homes for sale in San Francisco.
- There are more homes for sale over $1 million [378] than there are under $500,000 [308].
- Want a home for less than $250K? Good luck. Less than 1% of all homes for sale in San Francisco fit the bill. It’s twice as easy to find something over $4 million!
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Posted in Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009, active listings, analysis, distribution, homes for sale, market trends, Public Listings, san francisco, san francisco real estate | Leave a Comment »
February 6, 2009
What’s going on in Potrero Hill lately? We’ve seen a few interesting single family home listings in the area as of late and were curious as to what they are up against in today’s market. As we learned in a previous post, single family homes have come down 9.9% since peak (inflation adjusted), and 7.4% if you leave out District 10. So how does Potrero Hill’s single family home market compare to that? Has it dodged bullets or sputtered and stalled? That’s what you’re about to find out.
Are single family homes sputtering in Potrero Hill?
Continue reading to see the trend –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Potrero Hill | Tagged analysis, houses, median sales price, potrero hill, sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate, single family homes, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
February 4, 2009
One can often tell how hot or cold a real estate market is by how long it takes a typical home to sell. When homes are selling within a few weeks of hitting the market, things are pretty hot. Conversely, when homes sit on the shelf for a while, the market is cold. The duration of time a home is on the market is known as “marketing time”, “days on market”, or “DOM” for short.
In any given U.S. market, marketing times averaging less than 30 days signal a red hot market where properties are selling like hot cakes. Average marketing times between 31 and 59 days signal a strong market. When marketing times are between 60 and 180 days, the market is believed to be in balance.
Remember when homes were selling like hotcakes?
Once average marketing times surpass 180 days, however, things are looking grim and signal a weakening of the market in question.
How do we know these cutoffs are reliable indicators of market conditions? Well, we didn’t just make these numbers up– they’re actually what the banks have set forth as their guidelines. Matter of fact, average marketing times are printed right there in the appraisal report, which the lender scrutinizes carefully (especially these days).
Appraisal report snipit (click to enlarge)
Now that we’ve discussed marketing times and what a hot market, a market in balance, and a cold market look like, how would you like to see some trends in San Francisco? Well that’s just what we’ve done. We plotted average and median marketing times for all property types in the City and looked at the trends over a 14-year history. Here’s the chart:
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Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Tips | Tagged analysis, days on market, dom, history, marketing times, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips, trends | 1 Comment »
February 2, 2009
We’re having fun with our new formulas that give us the ability to adjust sales prices based on the Consumer Price Index. Just what is inflation adjusting?
Let’s say your parents bought a place in 1990 for $100,000 and today it is worth $500,000. One might assume that the value has increased $400,000. However, the value of the dollar has changed over the past 18 years, so we need to correct for those changes in order to determine how much true appreciation their home has accrued. What we find when we adjust for inflation is that $100,000 in 1990 is equivalent to $162,529 today. This changes the appreciation rate a bit. The home has actually appreciated $337,471 in real terms, not $400,000. Adjusting for inflation gives us a more accurate depiction of what the market is doing.
Balloons aren't the only things that inflate...
We wanted to revisit an old post that was one of our most popular on the blog to date. We discussed how much home prices have come down in San Francisco, and have since taken the data, inflation adjusted it, and have some new numbers (although very similar conclusions to last time).
Keep reading, this is good stuff!
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Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Nerdy RE Analysis, Tips | Tagged analysis, appreciation, depreciation, districts, median, median sales price, rankings, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips, trends, values | 2 Comments »
December 13, 2008
A post we wrote the other day regarding the distribution of sales by price bracket triggered a couple of follow up questions, and we now have the answers.
Time to get nerdy
One reader wanted to see the distribution broken down by property type (single family home versus condo/tic/loft/coop). We were also curious to see what happened to the distribution when we limited the sales to Districts 1-9 only. We were able to handle both questions with this chart right here:
Distribution of Sales Districts 1-9 (click to enlarge)
You can see that the bulk of single family homes are sold in the $750,000 to $999,999 category, while the bulk of condos are sold one step down in the $500,000 to $749,999 category. It’s no surprise that single family homes command a higher price tag (generally) around the City.
For the pie charts, continue reading –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2008, analysis, condos, coops, distribution of sales, lofts, number of sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate, single family homes, tics, Tips, total sales, trends | 2 Comments »
December 9, 2008
Bernal Heights and Glen Park exhibit some very similar characteristics. We wanted to share with you how each neighborhood has performed over time, and thought the best way to do it would be a good old fashioned showdown.
Bernal and Glen Park, it's time to reveal those cards
The first chart we’re looking at shows median prices for single family homes, trending over the last 14 years. Here’s a peek:
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Posted in Appreciation and Hold Times, Bernal Heights, Getting Granular, Glen Park, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged analysis, appreciation, Bernal Heights, depreciation, Glen Park, houses, median sales price, san francisco, san francisco real estate, single family homes, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
December 4, 2008
We’ve been hearing a lot of talk lately about how the high-end of the real estate market is performing better than the overall market. But what about here in San Francisco? Some reports tout that the luxury market has remained relatively unscathed, while others say that there is a lag and it will soon be hit. We wanted to sample some neighborhoods around San Francisco so we could get a feel, not just for the high end of the market, but also for the middle and low ends.
Here’s what we did. The most expensive single family home to sell in 2008 (per the MLS) is in Pacific Heights. The least expensive single family home to sell in 2008 is in Bayview. The neighborhood with the highest number of median-priced sales (median is currently $835,004) was Central Sunset. These 3 neighborhoods are our three samples from around the city of the high, the middle, and the low end.
The results from our analysis?
How you fared if you owned your property for... (click to enlarge)
For our commentary, continue reading –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Appreciation and Hold Times, Bayview, Central Sunset, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Pacific Heights | Tagged advice, analysis, appreciation rates, Bayview, Central Sunset, depreciation, hold times, Pacific Heights, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
December 2, 2008
We looked at 6 months history (6/1/08 thru 12/1/08) for sales of Hayes Valley condos to see what the REAL days on market figures were. Using the methodology described here, here’s what we found:
- A total of 12 condos have sold in Hayes Valley in the past 6 months (resales only — this does not include new developments)
- The average time it took a condo to go into contract was 31 days
- The average time it took a condo to sell was 43 days
- The high was 83 days to a ratified contract, 111 days to SOLD
- The low was 5 days to a ratified contract, 8 days to a SOLD
- What did MLS say? Average days on market : 43 days.
We did not run into any situations for this particular query where MLS had left out previous marketing times (such as expired or withdrawn listings) in their numbers.
Hayes Valley condo liquidity : Frozen like cubes or flowing like water??
The Verdict: Hayes Valley condo resales have demonstrated good liquidity over the last 6 months. When average marketing times creep above 90 days for an area, this can signal problems for existing owners (but opportunities for buyers).
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Posted in Hayes Valley, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, The REAL Days on Market | Tagged analysis, condominiums, condos, days on market, dom, Hayes Valley, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
December 1, 2008
We learned a lot about the Case-Shiller Index last week. Admittedly, we have not placed much faith in this particular index for the following reasons. First, it analyzes metropolitan area statistics. If you haven’t figured it out by now, we’re much more into neighborhood-level data, as we have found that neighborhoods truly are their own micro-markets, each behaving in their own way. Another reason we did not give Case-Shiller much credit is because they leave out condos, TIC’s, stock cooperatives, and lofts. The index is based upon single family home sales only. This is a big drawback.
- Your detective has arrived.
Despite these shortcomings, we read through the 40 page document describing the Case-Shiller methodology. There is certainly value in what they are attempting to do.
In short, they look at the sales price of a recently sold home and compare it to the previous sale of that same home. This allows them to see whether the home appreciated or depreciated, and at what rate. Comparing the home to itself controls for factors that can dirty data when comparing homes against other homes. When a particular home has a previous sale to which it can be compared, this called a “matched pair“. Case-Shiller takes thousands of matched pairs to come up with their overall metropolitan area (MSA) trend. The other brilliant thing about Case-Shiller is that they discard sales of homes that took place off-market, that were flipped (two sales too close together), and that had gains from major renovation projects or significant added square footage. Do they go through each listing manually to verify this? This answer is no. There is an algorithm that decides which matched pairs to keep and which ones to discard.
Case-Shiller does offer zip-code level based data. We called the provider (Fiserv) to purchase it so we could report on it and give it to you. However, only institutions can purchase the data and furthermore, they cannot reproduce or share the data with anyone else (per the user license).
SO – what we’ve done is come up with our own methodology, drawing from the positive aspects of the Case-Shiller Index and applying it to our micro-markets here in San Francisco. We’ll be reporting on each neighborhood as we go through them one by one. Is this painstaking? You bet. But we are in search of truth. And that’s what the series will be called… “In Search of Truth”.
Here’s a look at our methodology: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in In Search of Truth | Tagged analysis, appreciation, cake, case shiller, depreciation, matched pairs, micro markets, neighborhoods, sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate, trends | Leave a Comment »
