Posts Tagged ‘2009’
July 17, 2009
We recently built some spreadsheets for a client who is looking to purchase a condo in Alamo Square, and as part of our due diligence, ran some trending analysis for them. Alamo Square is a tiny neighborhood with few sales, so finding trends in the area is a tough assignment. We had to think through adjacent areas that exhibit similar traits, both from a residential and commercial standpoint. We determined that Hayes Valley, NOPA, and Lower Pacific Heights were similar enough (and also located in MLS District “6″) to lump together with Alamo Square and see what the overall trends were.
Cue the "Full House" intro...
So that’s what we did… we looked at median sales prices for condos in these ‘hoods dating back to 1995. We wanted to include 2009, so we capped each year at July 15th, controlling for seasonal fluctuations. We also inflation-adjust the medians, so we could see market movement isolated from the changing value of the dollar.
The last step was to look at the same trends for San Francisco’s condo market as a whole, and place the two lines on a graph to see how similar (or dissimilar) they were. What resulted was pretty interesting, and you can see the charts by continuing to read –>
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Posted in Alamo Square, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, North Panhandle | Tagged 2009, Alamo Square, Hayes Valley, lower pacific heights, median trends, nopa, san francisco, san francisco real estate, trends | Leave a Comment »
April 27, 2009
Days on Market (DOM) is the amount of time it takes a particular property to sell. The clock starts the moment the property hits the market and ends the moment it goes into “pending” status. Days on Market is a funny metric in our MLS system. We’ve discussed its shortcomings in previous posts and although we’d like to see some changes made to how it is measured, we still take a look at the trends on a regular basis.
We tracked DOM through April 26, 2009 (yesterday) and arrived at median and average figures. Next, we lined up this year’s performance thus far with the performance of years past. We isolated the time period from January 1 through April 26 during each year so we could have an apples to apples comparison.
Are homes taking longer to sell in 2009? Or is the market heating up? DOM should give us some insight into the current trend. When markets are hot, DOM is low because it takes less time to sell a property. When markets get cold, DOM creeps up. Let’s take a look at what’s going on here in San Francisco:
DOM Trends for Single Family Homes (click to enlarge)
This chart shows us DOM trends over the past 15 years. Clearly, 2009 has not shown any signs of heating up as compared to years past. Matter of fact, it has posted much weaker numbers than just a year ago. So where is the opportunistic info in this? Our take is that when sellers spend more time on the market, as they are now, they get a little nervous and are more willing to negotiate. This of course is a general statement – each home presents a unique set of circumstances. But the numbers here are glaringly obvious.
How about the same trend for Condominiums? Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009, analysis, days on market, dom, opportunities, real estate trends, san francisco, san francisco real estate | Leave a Comment »
April 16, 2009
Noe Valley is one of the few neighborhoods in San Francisco that has registered enough single family home sales in 2009 to start to see some sort of trend. That’s why we’ve chosen it for this post. Here are some stats:
- There have been 21 single family home sales in Noe Valley thus far in ’09.
- That’s about a 38% drop in activity over the same time period as last year.
- Despite a decline in activity, Noe still rides high in the City for overall transactions in 2009.
- The SFH median from 1/1/09 thru 4/15/09 is $1,210,000.
- That’s a 17% drop from the same time period as last year when adjusted for inflation/deflation.
Noe Valley
Now, we’re well aware that just 21 data points here in 2009 is a smidge on the low side for any trending analysis, but we cannot escape the fact that a trend is indeed emerging.
First, let’s take a good look at the median sales price for single family homes in Noe over the last 14 years. We’ve adjusted the prices for inflation so we can isolate market movement from the changing value of the dollar. And if you follow our blog, you’ll know that we’d love to go back further than 14 years but computerized MLS did not exist then. With that said, here is the median trend for Noe from January 1st thru April 15th of each respective year: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Neighborhood Info, Noe Valley | Tagged 2009, district 5c, Noe Valley, prices, san francisco, san francisco real estate, single family home trends, trends | Leave a Comment »
March 6, 2009
Real estate transaction volume in San Francisco is off to a lackluster start here in 2009. No surprise really, as it’s tough for people to get loans and many buyers are on the sidelines, riding exercise bikes and sipping Gatorade until coach calls ‘em into the game.
So where is the action this year? As I write this, there have been a total of 395 transactions recorded to MLS in San Francisco this year. That includes single family homes, condos, stock cooperatives, TICs, 2-4 unit buildings, 5+ unit buildings, and lots. It does not include sales taking place at new developments, private sales, or slacker agents who sold something two weeks ago but still haven’t put the sale in MLS.
We were curious to see who’s getting action so we ranked the 85 neighborhoods in the City (as determined by MLS) by the number of transactions thus far in ’09. The findings were more interesting than we thought they would be. Here is the rundown:
| Rank |
Neighborhood |
Number of Transactions |
| 1. |
Noe Valley |
30 |
| 2. |
Potrero Hill |
17 |
| 3. |
Excelsior |
13 |
| 4. |
Visitacion Valley |
12 |
| T-5. |
Russian Hill |
11 |
| T-5. |
South Beach |
11 |
| T-5. |
Inner Mission |
11 |
| T-5. |
Portola |
11 |
| T-5. |
Crocker Amazon |
11 |
| T-5. |
Bayview |
11 |
To see the rest of the list, continue reading –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Countdowns & Rankings, Macro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009, neighborhood rankings, number of home sales, sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate, transactions | 1 Comment »
February 17, 2009
This morning we took a pulse reading of the local market to see the distribution of the 1,484 homes for sale in San Francisco. Homes included in our analysis include condos, TICs, lofts, stock co-ops, and single family residences. Keep in mind, homes not advertised on the MLS (such as pocket listings, FSBOs, and new developments) are not reflected in this data.
Current Inventory Distribution by asking price (click to enlarge)
- Listings asking over $1 million account for exactly one quarter of all homes for sale in San Francisco.
- Listings asking $500,000 to $999,999 account for over half (53.77%) of all homes for sale in San Francisco.
- Listings asking $500,000 to $749,999 account for 31.60% of all actives. This is the largest category when breaking the market down in $250,000 increments.
- The next largest is the $750,000 to $999,999 category, posting 22.17% of all actives.
- Listings in the ultra-luxury market (above $4 million) account for 1.82% of all homes for sale in San Francisco.
- There are more homes for sale over $1 million [378] than there are under $500,000 [308].
- Want a home for less than $250K? Good luck. Less than 1% of all homes for sale in San Francisco fit the bill. It’s twice as easy to find something over $4 million!
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Posted in Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009, active listings, analysis, distribution, homes for sale, market trends, Public Listings, san francisco, san francisco real estate | Leave a Comment »
January 31, 2009
That’s just what the Doctor ordered for San Francisco’s newest (and tallest) luxury condo high rise, The Millennium. Sales haven’t exactly been soaring since the sales center opened in June 2008. The timing of the project is partially to blame, as the economy decidedly got worse as the building was being constructed. This was an unfortunate turn of events for the developer, but they persisted anyway. The other challenge is that the units in the building ain’t cheap. Think $1,000 to $2,500 per square foot, depending on what floor you’re on. The luxury market is a small one, and catering to this crowd is quite the challenge.
So how could the sales team spice things up a bit? Last week they slashed prices across the board, fifteen percent. Since the price cut, seven units have gone into contract including one of the two penthouses on the 59th floor. We’ve taken pictures of the views from up there, so if you’d like to check it out you can click HERE. The developer also honored the 15% discount to all those currently in contract. We think this is a classy move, considering deposits on the units are non-refundable.
To read the full article about the Millennium Tower’s recent success, click HERE. It was published in the San Francisco Business Times.
The Millennium Tower is San Francisco's tallest residential highrise and the 4th tallest building in the City at 645 feet.
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Posted in Financial District, Neighborhood Info, New Developments, News, SoMa, Tips | Tagged 2009, condos, discount, luxury condominiums, millennium tower, sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate | Leave a Comment »
January 23, 2009
Forbes came out with an article a couple of days ago that ranks the world’s cities in terms of the best opportunities for real estate investors in 2009. Cities named in the top 10 show exceptional long-term stability and have proven track records. According to the article, investors are back to basics and are looking at tried and true cities… not so much the exotic locations that were popular in years past.
San Francisco Ranks #6 in the World
Here is a list of the World’s Best Places for Real Estate Buys – 10 Cities Investors Will Target in 2009:
- Washington, D.C.
- London
- New York
- Tokyo
- Shanghai
- San Francisco
- Los Angeles
- Paris
- Houston
- Singapore
According to the article, San Francisco ranked #24 last year and is now up to #6. Click HERE to read the article in full.
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Posted in Countdowns & Rankings, News | Tagged 2009, forbes, list, rankings, real estate investment, san francisco, san francisco real estate, world cities | Leave a Comment »
January 22, 2009
Are you ready for a 2009 update?
San Francisco from Treasure Island - by me
Lets kick it off with Single Family Homes.
As I write this, there have been 43 closed sales of single family homes since the 1st of the year. Interestingly, 42% of this year’s sales have taken place in District 10 with 58% taking place in Districts 1-9. The discrepancy between asking prices and selling prices is small– homes have sold for 98.88% of their asking prices using averages and 98.65% using medians.
The median marketing time is 44 days and the average is 55.
How many single family homes are available for purchase right now? MLS indicates 484 with a median asking price of $799,000. There are an additional 212 homes that are under contract or currently pending (pending means that they are under contract and that all contingencies have been removed).
We have had 23 listings expire and 44 withdrawn since the 1st of the year.
Next up, the Condominium market: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, News, Tips | Tagged 2009, market activity, market report, san francisco, san francisco real estate, update | Leave a Comment »
January 9, 2009
Grubb Ellis, a respected commercial real estate and investment firm, came out with a very interesting article a couple of days ago that makes some predictions for 2009. Predictions were made for the office space market, the retail market, the industrial market, and the residential rental market.
As you might expect, the article is not filled with tons of good news for 2009. One to two million job losses are predicted for the year, GDP is expected to decline by 1% (versus a gain of 1.3% last year), office and retail vacancies are expected to rise, and downward pressure is expected for residential rents around the nation.
Is there a glimmer of hope anywhere out there?
What we found striking is how San Francisco ranks #4 on Grubb Ellis’s list of places for office space investors to buy, #7 for retail investors to buy, and #2 for multi-family rental buildings to buy. The only portion of the article that does not mention San Francisco is the section on investing in industrial real estate. Industrial real estate is more prevalent in Oakland, which ranks #4 on their list for investors to buy.
Our conclusion is that although commercial real estate is taking hits like residential real estate, San Francisco still makes the cut in three of four categories. We think of it as a glimmer of light in a sea of gloom, and a sign of our City’s resilience.
To read the full article, click HERE.
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Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, News | Tagged 2009, article, commercial, grubb ellis, industrial, market, office, predictions, rental, retail, san francisco, san francisco real estate | Leave a Comment »
