Archive for the ‘Nerdy RE Analysis’ Category
March 21, 2010
Current observations of the San Francisco residential real estate market (written on 3/21/2010):
1) Following the market crash of late ’08, confidence slowly began trickling back into the marketplace beginning in April 2009. Sales picked up through the summer and carried strong through the end of the year.
2) Many experts have called the “bottom”, but our view is that “bottom” takes place at different times for different price brackets. The low end of the market tends to feel the pain and hit bottom first, while the higher end of the market hangs on a little bit longer. Commercial lags everything, and may not hit bottom for a year or two.
3) The sentiment in today’s market is much better than around this time last year. Many new sales and pendings have led to the lowest MSI (months supply of inventory) on record in over two years. See the chart below:
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) - Local vs National - click to enlarge
4) Current inventory levels are 17% Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Glen Park, Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 1167 bosworth, months supply of inventory, msi, san francisco, san francisco real estate | 1 Comment »
January 6, 2010
Why the double asterisk? We’ll get to that in a moment.
Sales Volume Comparison (click to enlarge)
Observations:
- Single family home sales have been on the decline since 2003 and appear to have bottomed (or at least flattened) in ’08 & ’09.
- Condo sales volume tends to be more sensitive to market changes (hence the bumpier road) and continued to decline in ’09. Declines have been consistent since 2004.
- TIC sales volume has steadily increased over time, with a big push around 2004/2005, as Fractional Lending products became available. TIC volume dipped during the downturn along with other property types, but appears to have flattened.
Now, for those asterisks. As we zoom in and take a look at 2009, Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged macro trends, sales volume, san francisco, san francisco real estate | 5 Comments »
September 3, 2009
After writing “Getting Granular in Noe Valley” a couple days ago [which has received tons of hits], we figured it would make for a nice contrast to take a swing at Excelsior. Located just south of I-280, the nabe is home to many interesting people and houses. Jerry Garcia even once called the Excelsior home.
Excelsior street signs - Photos by Jef Poskanzer
Like Noe Valley, the neighborhood has posted a generous amount of sales in 2009, making it a good candidate for a trending analysis. And since it’s significantly different than Noe, it will be a fun little exercise.
Single family home medians (click to enlarge)
- The first thing I notice from this chart is how much smoother the line is compared to Noe’s, indicating that Excelsior may not be as sensitive to short-term perturbations in the market as Noe.
- Prices have fallen 32.34% from peak (in inflation adjusted terms), compared to Noe’s 22.05%. Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Excelsior, Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009 excelsior trends, 2009 noe valley trends, Excelsior, Noe Valley, san francisco real estate | 2 Comments »
September 1, 2009
Looking down towards Noe Valley - courtesy of Wikimedia
In Noe Valley there have been 85 single family home sales recorded in MLS for 2009. You know what that means! Time for a trending analysis, as we have a nice long string of sales for the year. What did we look at?
We calculated the median sales price for single family homes in Noe for the period of January 1 through September 1 of each year dating back to 1995. A trend became clear after plotting the values on a graph. But what about inflation? We added a second line to show what median values look like over the same time period when inflation is accounted for. The results?
Noe Valley SFH Trends (click to enlarge)
- In inflation-adjusted terms, Noe’s 2009 median is somewhere between 2003 and 2004.
- Values have come down 22.05% from peak. Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Noe Valley | Tagged 2009 noe valley, noe valley home prices, noe valley medians, noe valley trends, real estate trends, san francisco real estate | 4 Comments »
August 12, 2009
If you follow the real estate market, you’ve probably heard that things have been picking up these last few months. Q1 2009 was ice cold. The market began to thaw in Q2, and here in Q3 we’re continuing to see a lot of action. Most of the churning is taking place below $1M, but there has been a higher incidence of luxury homes selling these past couple of months.
Is the blaze beginning to subside?
How much has the market picked up? We set out to find the answer using a very simple approach. We tallied up all the Single Family Home and Condo sales taking place per month dating back to June 2006. Here’s a look at the trend:
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged condo sales, market conditions, market trends, real estate trends, sales volume, san francisco real estate, single family home sales | 4 Comments »
July 31, 2009
Lets find out, shall we? Since the 1st half of ’09 is officially over and recorded, we crunched some numbers and then compared it to the same period for ’08. What we found leads us to some very general statements about year over year price declines in San Francisco. We say “very general” because we’re looking at the City as a whole. Different neighborhoods of course behave in different ways. Matter of fact, each individual property behaves in a unique fashion. In any case, here is what we found:
Single family home prices have come down 18% and condo prices have come down 15% since this time last year.
Here is the spreadsheet:
——————————————————————————————————————————————
| SFH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg SP |
Med SP |
Avg PPSF |
|
|
| 1st Half 09 |
$958,995 |
$718,000 |
$578 |
|
|
| 1st Half 08 |
$1,217,186 |
$865,000 |
$697 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Change |
-21.21% |
-16.99% |
-17.02% |
-18.41% |
Avg Using 3 Methods |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Condos |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg SP |
Med SP |
Avg PPSF |
|
|
| 1st Half 09 |
$779,023 |
$669,500 |
$646 |
|
|
| 1st Half 08 |
$921,474 |
$800,000 |
$741 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Change |
-15.46% |
-16.31% |
-12.80% |
-14.86% |
Avg Using 3 Methods |
——————————————————————————————————————————————
The numbers here are pretty compelling. Any way you slice it, whether you’re looking at medians, averages, or price per square foot, prices are down and local real estate is on sale. The difference one year makes is quite substantial. The market has changed so quickly that many are still scratching their heads wondering what happened and what’s to come.
There's a sale going on... 15-18% off! (Image courtesy of zimbio.com)
Click HERE to view more articles that analyze SF’s market as a whole.
To share this article, continue reading –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged price declines, san francisco housing trends, san francisco property value trends, san francisco real estate | 5 Comments »
July 17, 2009
We recently built some spreadsheets for a client who is looking to purchase a condo in Alamo Square, and as part of our due diligence, ran some trending analysis for them. Alamo Square is a tiny neighborhood with few sales, so finding trends in the area is a tough assignment. We had to think through adjacent areas that exhibit similar traits, both from a residential and commercial standpoint. We determined that Hayes Valley, NOPA, and Lower Pacific Heights were similar enough (and also located in MLS District “6″) to lump together with Alamo Square and see what the overall trends were.
Cue the "Full House" intro...
So that’s what we did… we looked at median sales prices for condos in these ‘hoods dating back to 1995. We wanted to include 2009, so we capped each year at July 15th, controlling for seasonal fluctuations. We also inflation-adjust the medians, so we could see market movement isolated from the changing value of the dollar.
The last step was to look at the same trends for San Francisco’s condo market as a whole, and place the two lines on a graph to see how similar (or dissimilar) they were. What resulted was pretty interesting, and you can see the charts by continuing to read –>
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Alamo Square, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, North Panhandle | Tagged 2009, Alamo Square, Hayes Valley, lower pacific heights, median trends, nopa, san francisco, san francisco real estate, trends | Leave a Comment »
July 12, 2009
It’s time to battle. The first half of ’09 is over and we’re anxious to see which condo market has fared better through the roughest patch of real estate roadway we’ve driven over in quite some time.
It's time to battle! Is Obama about to flick McCain's ear? Nice.
In this analysis, we compared condominium median trends in two large market areas. The first is what we’ll refer to as “SOMA”, and includes South of Market, South Beach, and Mission Bay. See districts 9d, 9f, and 9h on THIS map.
The second market area is what we’ll refer to as “North of California” and includes the neighborhoods of the Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, North Waterfront, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Russian Hill, and Nob Hill. Districts 7a, 7b, 7c, 7d may be seen on THIS map, and 8c, 8d, 8e, 8g, and 8h, on THIS map.
The two market areas we defined differ significantly from one another. We’ve written about SOMA’s higher inventory levels in the past, and since the overall market has taken a turn for the worse, we would like to see if those inventory levels have indeed affected values. North of California has tighter inventory levels and less growth (in the form of newly built homes). It seems more stable, but what will the numbers say? Lets find out, shall we?!?
To see the charts, continue reading –>
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009 trends, condo market trends, north of california street, san francisco, san francisco real estate, san francisco real estate trends, soma | Leave a Comment »
June 29, 2009
Here are some interesting facts and figures we ran today that corroborate the story of two markets, which we wrote about a few days ago. What exactly did we look at?
We isolated all sales that have taken place from January 1 through June 1 and compared 2008′s performance to 2009′s. The sales were divided up by price bracket. Our goal was to see which price brackets have seen the biggest drops (or rises) in activity since this time last year.
Sales volume by price bracket - click to enlarge
- The number of transactions in the sub $500K range is actually UP from last year… by 21.82%.
- The number of transactions in the $500,000 to $749,000 range is down 13.55% from last year.
- The $750,000 to $999,999 bracket is down 45.02% from last year.
- The $1M to $1,249,000 bracket is down 55.38% from last year.
- The $1.25M to $1,499,000 bracket is down 60.14% from last year.
- The $1.5M to $1,999,999 bracket is down 60% from last year.
- The $2M to $2,999,000 bracket is down the most: 64.89% from last year.
- The $3M to $4.9M bracket is down 41.18% from last year.
- And the $5M+ bracket is down the second most, with a 64.29% decease in transactions from this time last year.
Final Thoughts
For all price brackets, the number of transactions is down 32% year over year. Since that seems to be the norm, it could be deduced that anything less is a sign of relative strength while anything more is a sign of relative weakness.
Sales on the low end continue to show signs of strength in 2009. Essentially, homes priced less than Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged market commentary, market trends, real estate market analysis, sales volume, san francisco, san francisco real estate, transaction volume | Leave a Comment »
June 25, 2009
As most of you know, the San Francisco Association of Realtors has divided the city up into 10 market areas. Curious to find out what’s been transpiring on a district by district basis here in ’09, we decided to run a little analysis. Our goal? To take a look at the year over year performance of each district, using median sales price as our yardstick. Here’s what we did:
- Find the median sales price in each district from January 1, 2008 through June 1, 2008. Record it.
- Find the median sales price in each district from January 1, 2009 through June 1, 2009. Record it.
- Calculate the year over year change for each district.
- Rank the 10 districts based on performance over this period.
- How are the 10 districts faring from last year? Photo courtesy of tenyearsofmylife.com
*Please note: You’ll need to familiarize yourself with THIS map in order to understand the MLS districts. All sales come from the MLS. These do not include private transactions or sales taking place at new developments. Property types included in the analysis include single family homes, condos, TIC’s, lofts, and stock cooperatives.
What did we find? Continue reading for the chart –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged district analysis, real estate trends, san francisco, san francisco real estate, san francisco real estate trends 2009 | Leave a Comment »
June 19, 2009
The University of Wisconsin just completed a survey which was released by the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE). The survey involved questioning the AFIRE’s 200 members regarding their feelings on the US real estate market, which cities would be first to recover, and when recovery would begin. Here are some bullet points, and to check out the entire article courtesy of CNBC, click HERE.
First Cities To Recover:
- Washington D.C. (favored heavily)
- New York, NY.
- San Francisco, CA.
- Boston, MA.
- Los Angeles, CA.
Timing for Real Estate Recovery:
- Most respondents feel that recovery will begin in late Q2 2010.
- Investments during the latter half of ’09 will out-strip investments made in the first half of ’09.
Sectors to Recover First:
- Office Sector
- Multi-Family Sector
- Industrial Sector
"And the survey says!"
To share this post, continue reading –>
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Posted in Macro-Level Info, News | Tagged afire.org, association of foreign investors in real estate, macro level real estate analysis, real estate, real estate trends | Leave a Comment »
June 8, 2009
It’s about that time again. With sales activity picking up sharply in the last couple of months, we’ve decided to update our rankings for San Francisco’s 85 neighborhoods based upon the number of sales that have occurred in each one.
Sales numbers include single family homes, condos, TICs, lofts, stock cooperatives, 2-4 unit buildings, 5+ unit buildings, and land. Noe Valley still leads the pack and Bernal has made a big upward move to the #2 spot since we last ran this report. Potrero Hill, Pacific Heights, and SOMA round out the Top 5.
And yeah, we know this analysis doesn’t control for the size of the neighborhoods, but we find it interesting nonetheless.
Which neighborhoods have all the ACTION?
| Rank |
Neighborhood |
Number of Sales |
| 1. |
Noe Valley |
84 |
| 2. |
Bernal Heights |
51 |
| 3. |
Potrero Hill |
46 |
| T-4. |
Pacific Heights |
44 |
| T-4. |
South of Market (SoMa) |
44 |
| 6. |
Inner Mission |
43 |
| 7. |
Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights |
39 |
| 8. |
South Beach |
37 |
| 9. |
Excelsior |
36 |
| 10. |
Parkside |
35 |
To see the remainder of the list, continue reading –>
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Countdowns & Rankings, Macro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009 sales, neighborhood rankings, number of sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate, trends | Leave a Comment »
June 5, 2009
Wish we were referring to a magical moment as the sun dips below the Pacific horizon on a gorgeous evening… but we’re referring to “The Sunset”. Sales price trends in the neighborhood have long been thought to be a decent barometer of the overall San Francisco housing market. Why? The Sunset is a large, fairly stable neighborhood with many similar homes selling around San Francisco’s median.
So let’s take a look at the median sales price from January 1, 2009 through June 1, 2009. And better yet, lets compare this year’s median to that of years past, over the same time period. This should give us a glimpse into present day conditions, not just in the Sunset, but into the San Francisco market as a whole (if the aforementioned theory holds any weight). And as our readers know, we’d love to go back further than 1995 but MLS does not support that. Here is the trend:
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Sunset District | Tagged median sales prices, real estate trends, san francisco, san francisco real estate, sunset san francisco, sunset trends | Leave a Comment »
May 25, 2009
There is no doubt that lofts are unique property types. They appeal to a small but dedicated audience. San Francisco has some truly amazing lofts that can tempt even the die-hardest of single family home advocates (like THIS spectacular loft).
There is also the category of loft that we refer to as “loft wanna-be’s”. These are often the cheaply built, cookie-cutter style lofts that are overflowing with Lee Press-On bricks and faux stucco facades. You’ll know when you’re standing in one of these developments, as you’ll feel like a stiff breeze might blow the building away like a feather in the wind. Or you might have the nagging feeling you’re somewhere in a San Jose suburb. Either way, it doesn’t take a genius to recognize quality. Tapping on bricks with your knuckles shouldn’t sound like you’re knocking on a hollow plastic bucket.
Real brick? Right...
San Francisco, and SoMa in particular, has a blend of both loft types. Overall, we wanted to see if they were growing or diminishing in popularity. We tallied up how many condo & loft sales have taken place through May 1 of each year. Then we calculated how many of the total were attributed to SoMa loft sales. Here is what we found: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, SoMa, Tips | Tagged district 9f, loft market, loft tips, loft trends, san francisco, san francisco real estate, soma lofts, south of market | 3 Comments »
2009 : A Rough and Tumble Year
June 29, 2009Here are some interesting facts and figures we ran today that corroborate the story of two markets, which we wrote about a few days ago. What exactly did we look at?
We isolated all sales that have taken place from January 1 through June 1 and compared 2008′s performance to 2009′s. The sales were divided up by price bracket. Our goal was to see which price brackets have seen the biggest drops (or rises) in activity since this time last year.
Sales volume by price bracket - click to enlarge
Final Thoughts
For all price brackets, the number of transactions is down 32% year over year. Since that seems to be the norm, it could be deduced that anything less is a sign of relative strength while anything more is a sign of relative weakness.
Sales on the low end continue to show signs of strength in 2009. Essentially, homes priced less than Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged market commentary, market trends, real estate market analysis, sales volume, san francisco, san francisco real estate, transaction volume | Leave a Comment »