Archive for the ‘Market Check Up’ Category
March 21, 2010
Current observations of the San Francisco residential real estate market (written on 3/21/2010):
1) Following the market crash of late ’08, confidence slowly began trickling back into the marketplace beginning in April 2009. Sales picked up through the summer and carried strong through the end of the year.
2) Many experts have called the “bottom”, but our view is that “bottom” takes place at different times for different price brackets. The low end of the market tends to feel the pain and hit bottom first, while the higher end of the market hangs on a little bit longer. Commercial lags everything, and may not hit bottom for a year or two.
3) The sentiment in today’s market is much better than around this time last year. Many new sales and pendings have led to the lowest MSI (months supply of inventory) on record in over two years. See the chart below:
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) - Local vs National - click to enlarge
4) Current inventory levels are 17% Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Glen Park, Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 1167 bosworth, months supply of inventory, msi, san francisco, san francisco real estate | 1 Comment »
January 6, 2010
Why the double asterisk? We’ll get to that in a moment.
Sales Volume Comparison (click to enlarge)
Observations:
- Single family home sales have been on the decline since 2003 and appear to have bottomed (or at least flattened) in ’08 & ’09.
- Condo sales volume tends to be more sensitive to market changes (hence the bumpier road) and continued to decline in ’09. Declines have been consistent since 2004.
- TIC sales volume has steadily increased over time, with a big push around 2004/2005, as Fractional Lending products became available. TIC volume dipped during the downturn along with other property types, but appears to have flattened.
Now, for those asterisks. As we zoom in and take a look at 2009, Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged macro trends, sales volume, san francisco, san francisco real estate | 5 Comments »
February 17, 2009
This morning we took a pulse reading of the local market to see the distribution of the 1,484 homes for sale in San Francisco. Homes included in our analysis include condos, TICs, lofts, stock co-ops, and single family residences. Keep in mind, homes not advertised on the MLS (such as pocket listings, FSBOs, and new developments) are not reflected in this data.
Current Inventory Distribution by asking price (click to enlarge)
- Listings asking over $1 million account for exactly one quarter of all homes for sale in San Francisco.
- Listings asking $500,000 to $999,999 account for over half (53.77%) of all homes for sale in San Francisco.
- Listings asking $500,000 to $749,999 account for 31.60% of all actives. This is the largest category when breaking the market down in $250,000 increments.
- The next largest is the $750,000 to $999,999 category, posting 22.17% of all actives.
- Listings in the ultra-luxury market (above $4 million) account for 1.82% of all homes for sale in San Francisco.
- There are more homes for sale over $1 million [378] than there are under $500,000 [308].
- Want a home for less than $250K? Good luck. Less than 1% of all homes for sale in San Francisco fit the bill. It’s twice as easy to find something over $4 million!
To share this article, continue reading –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009, active listings, analysis, distribution, homes for sale, market trends, Public Listings, san francisco, san francisco real estate | Leave a Comment »
February 9, 2009
South Beach is an interesting part of the City to analyze. There has been so much development occurring in the past couple decades to make it a poster-child for urban renaissance. However, with rapid change comes big gambling. Big winners and in some cases, big losers.
"I've got a pair of South Beaches and a pair of Nob Hills... what 'chu got?"
We took a close look at the South Beach condominium market (which includes lofts) to see what types of trends are going on in the ‘hood. We’ve looked at trends here before, but we’ve taken the analysis a step further by 1) inflation-adjusting the values to account for the changing value of the dollar, and 2) overlaid the neighborhood trend with that of the entire City to gain a sense of relation.
Before we take a look at the trends, a few points about the data must be made. First, the data comes from MLS (like all of our analysis). Developers who are selling brand new condos (for example, at the Infinity) do not put their sales prices in the MLS. This is kept secret so they can adjust their sales prices on the fly, based on demand. You can thank them for that… it’s not our doing! Even though new development sales are left out of the analysis does not render the data useless, however. Resales (sales from one person to another) are tracked in the MLS, and it’s the resale market owners should be most concerned with.
With that said, here’s a look at what’s going on with South Beach condos on the whole: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Appreciation and Hold Times, Getting Granular, Market Check Up, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, South Beach | Tagged condominiums, condos, infinity, lofts, medians, san francisco, san francisco real estate, soma, south beach, south of market, trends, values | 1 Comment »
February 2, 2009
We’re having fun with our new formulas that give us the ability to adjust sales prices based on the Consumer Price Index. Just what is inflation adjusting?
Let’s say your parents bought a place in 1990 for $100,000 and today it is worth $500,000. One might assume that the value has increased $400,000. However, the value of the dollar has changed over the past 18 years, so we need to correct for those changes in order to determine how much true appreciation their home has accrued. What we find when we adjust for inflation is that $100,000 in 1990 is equivalent to $162,529 today. This changes the appreciation rate a bit. The home has actually appreciated $337,471 in real terms, not $400,000. Adjusting for inflation gives us a more accurate depiction of what the market is doing.
Balloons aren't the only things that inflate...
We wanted to revisit an old post that was one of our most popular on the blog to date. We discussed how much home prices have come down in San Francisco, and have since taken the data, inflation adjusted it, and have some new numbers (although very similar conclusions to last time).
Keep reading, this is good stuff!
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Nerdy RE Analysis, Tips | Tagged analysis, appreciation, depreciation, districts, median, median sales price, rankings, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips, trends, values | 2 Comments »
January 30, 2009
We’ve been busy. Very busy. We have been putting together our first post called “Market Check-Up”, in which we’ll delve deep into a local micro-market and give you all the stats, trends and analysis you could ever hope for. This is like our Getting Granular series on steroids. In this series you’ll see:
- Median Sales Price trends over the past 14 years, inflation adjusted using the Consumer Price Index!
- Sales Volume, as compared to the overall San Francisco market. You’ll learn how this neighborhood has increased or decreased in volume over time.
- How much appreciation or depreciation you would have realized if you owned your property for X amount of years (again, inflation adjusted).
- Year over year appreciation rates comparing our micro-market of choice to San Francisco as a whole. This will let you know if the neighborhood is a good or poor performer in relation to the entire City.
- Marketshare: You’ll learn how much of the overall San Francisco market this neighborhood is responsible for.
- Days on market trends and sales price to list price ratios.
- Absorption rates, numbers of Expired and Withdrawn listings.
- Add to that bullet points and commentary, and you’ve got yourself a good, all around micro-market “Check-Up”.
And we're underway!
Let’s get things started, shall we? The first neighborhood we’ve chosen is Pacific Heights and the property type is condominiums. Even if you’re not interested in this market segment, take a peek at the article so you can see all the glorious analysis that’s in store for your neighborhood soon.
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Appreciation and Hold Times, Getting Granular, Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Pacific Heights | Tagged absorption, condo market, condominiums, Cow Hollow, days on market, district 7, Marina, median values, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, sales price, san francisco, san francisco real estate, stats, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
