Excelsior street signs - Photos by Jef Poskanzer

Like Noe Valley, the neighborhood has posted a generous amount of sales in 2009, making it a good candidate for a trending analysis.  And since it’s significantly different than Noe, it will be a fun little exercise.

Single family home medians (click to enlarge)

• The first thing I notice from this chart is how much smoother the line is compared to Noe’s, indicating that Excelsior may not be as sensitive to short-term perturbations in the market as Noe.
• Prices have fallen 32.34% from peak (in inflation adjusted terms), compared to Noe’s 22.05%.
• 15.96% [about half] of the 32% decline occurred in the past year.  Compare this to Noe’s, whose year over year decline was much more drastic (19 of 22%).  This tells us that Excelsior reacted to the downturn first, and Noe lagged.
• The “peak” occurred in 2006, a full year before Noe’s peak.
• Excelsior’s current median is right around 2002′s [in inflation adjusted terms].  Noe’s current median was more comparable to 2003/04.  Looks like Excelsior has regressed a bit further.

Sales volume for Excelsior:

Sale volume for Excelsior SFH's (click to enlarge)

• 1999 was the big year in Excelsior.  A full decade later, we’re at about half the sales volume of ’99.
• Sales volume has remained relatively consistent since 2005.

Final Thoughts

It is an interesting comparison, Noe and Excelsior.  Not many people would run an analysis like this.  But that’s part of the fun.

Perhaps the most interesting thing to come out of this exercise is that Excelsior began its decline first.  The first signs of decline were between 2006 and 2007.  Noe didn’t show signs of decline until 2007-2008, a full year later.  In a sense, Excelsior served as a leading indicator of what Noe would do.  Is this a law?  Hardly.  But we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of using lower end markets to predict higher end markets, often with a year lead-time.  If you look at the complete 15 year history, inflation-adjusted medians have increased 195% in Excelsior and 212% in Noe Valley.  Not too far off from one another.  In recent years, Excelsior has fallen more, but Noe has fallen faster.  We predict that Excelsior will stabilize, or “hit bottom” before Noe.  But we’ll of course have to wait another year to see how these graphs change.  Keep tuning in, and keep truckin’!

For more “Getting Granular” articles, click HERE.

Looking down towards Noe Valley - courtesy of Wikimedia

In Noe Valley there have been 85 single family home sales recorded in MLS for 2009.  You know what that means!  Time for a trending analysis, as we have a nice long string of sales for the year.  What did we look at?

We calculated the median sales price for single family homes in Noe for the period of January 1 through September 1 of each year dating back to 1995.  A trend became clear after plotting the values on a graph.  But what about inflation?  We added a second line to show what median values look like over the same time period when inflation is accounted for.  The results?

Noe Valley SFH Trends (click to enlarge)

• In inflation-adjusted terms, Noe’s 2009 median is somewhere between 2003 and 2004.
• Values have come down 22.05% from peak.
• 19.94% of that decline occurred within the past year.
• The 2009 SFH median in Noe is $1,120,000.  At its peak it was $1,436,850 (inflation adjusted).
• The “peak” occurred in 2007.

The next graph shows us sales volume for SFH’s in Noe dating back to ’95.

Noe SFH Sales Volume (click to enlarge)

• Sales volume peaked in 2004.
• Sales remain very consistent in Noe Valley and have not slid as much as other neighborhoods (particularly over the past 2 years).
• 2009′s sales may be slightly under-represented.  Some homes have closed but have not been entered into MLS yet.

Final Thoughts

I get asked all the time how much home values have come down.  The answer is never an easy one, as different property types in different neighborhoods have come down different amounts.  But now we know the number for Noe single family homes, don’t we.

What do we make of this info?  Will things continue downward?  Maybe.  Have things bottomed out?  Tough to tell.  Because we looked at numbers on an annual basis, we won’t be able to identify a bottom until we see what happens to 2010′s median.  And that’s a while to wait.  The nature of this type of analysis has pluses and minuses.  The plus is that we get a nice long string of sales to compute that median.  The minus is that it is looking back in time.  The data lags the real-time market and we’ll have to wait until next year to see which direction the curve decides to go.  If you’re in real estate for the long term, and I always suggest that you are, then an annual picture such as this may be of benefit.  At least, I hope it is or I’ve wasted my last hour… hehe.

Is now a good time to buy?  Depends.

For more Getting Granular articles, click HERE.

It's time to battle! Is Obama about to flick McCain's ear? Nice.

In this analysis, we compared condominium median trends in two large market areas.  The first is what we’ll refer to as “SOMA”, and includes South of Market, South Beach, and Mission Bay.  See districts 9d, 9f, and 9h on THIS map.

The second market area is what we’ll refer to as “North of California” and includes the neighborhoods of the Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, North Waterfront, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Russian Hill, and Nob Hill.  Districts 7a, 7b, 7c, 7d may be seen on THIS map, and 8c, 8d, 8e, 8g, and 8h, on THIS map.

The two market areas we defined differ significantly from one another.  We’ve written about SOMA’s higher inventory levels in the past, and since the overall market has taken a turn for the worse, we would like to see if those inventory levels have indeed affected values.  North of California has tighter inventory levels and less growth (in the form of newly built homes).  It seems more stable, but what will the numbers say?  Lets find out, shall we?!?

To see the charts, continue reading –>

SOMA vs North of Calif - Medians (click to enlarge)

• Medians were inflation adjusted to control for the changing value of the dollar over time.  This helps us isolate market movement from other factors.
• We analyzed just the first half of each year so that we could get an “apples to apples” comparison with 2009 included.
• SOMA seemed to react to the downturn first.  Medians peaked in 2005.  North of California’s medians peaked in 2008.
• This is a “duh” stat, but it is more expensive to live North of California than South of Market.
• SOMA medians have come down 21.04% since peak.  North of California medians have declined only half as much, coming down 9.7% from peak.
• SOMA has had a much more dramatic year over year decline, posting a 17.16% loss.  North of California is down 9.7% year over year.
• Is SOMA a weaker market, or is North of California just late to react?  That remains to be seen.  If SOMA begins to stabilize and North of California continues to fall, we’ll be able to make a call.  Looking back at the dot com bomb and the terrorist attacks of 2001, it seems that SOMA reacted with a trough first, with North of California taking a full year longer to hit its low.  Both fell a remarkably similar 20% at the time.

How about the sales volume for these two market areas?  After all, we need to show you how many sales went into each median value, so you can have confidence in these numbers.

Sales volume - SOMA vs North of California (click to enlarge)

• SOMA sales are down 62% from peak.  Condo sales volume North of California is down even more, declining 72% from peak.
• On a year over year basis, SOMA has fared better once again, down 41%.  North of California is down 57%.
• With higher prices in the North of California market area, it makes sense that sales volume has declined more.

Final Thoughts

North of California has shown more resilience through the downturn thus far and generally has less inventory glut.  However, we wouldn’t be surprised if there was some correction left in the North of California market area, as it has demonstrated in the past that it can lag the SOMA market by a full year when major events affecting real estate play out in the market.

The fact that sales volume is down more noticeably in North of California can be tied to the fact that real estate is more expensive in the area.  We’ve noticed (and written about) higher price brackets in San Francisco having less sales, which is likely due to higher interest rates and larger down payment requirements in the jumbo market.  Credit in the low price brackets is flowing slowly, like cold water.  Around the $1M price point, things get tougher, and credit begins to resemble “slush”.  At the high end, credit no longer flows… it has big chunks of ice in it.

Winner of the battle?  North of California… for now.

For more articles that analyze SF’s neighborhoods, click HERE.

So let’s take a look at the median sales price from January 1, 2009 through June 1, 2009.  And better yet, lets compare this year’s median to that of years past, over the same time period.  This should give us a glimpse into present day conditions, not just in the Sunset, but into the San Francisco market as a whole (if the aforementioned theory holds any weight).  And as our readers know, we’d love to go back further than 1995 but MLS does not support that.  Here is the trend:

Sunset SFH Medians from 1/1 thru 6/1 Over Time (click to enlarge)

• In order to control for the changing value of the dollar, numbers were inflation adjusted.  This gives us a more accurate view of market movement.
• As you can see, the median is down substantially this year from last… 14.48% to be exact.
• From the peak in 2005, home prices are down 24.97%.
• Home prices today are just a smidge higher than they were in 2003.

Here are the numbers of sales that have taken place from January 1, 2009 through June 1, 2009 of each year:

Number of SFH Sales Each Year - 1/1 thru 6/1 (click to enlarge)

• Wow, check that out.  A 48% decline year over year for single family home sales in the Sunset.
• From the peak in activity in 2003, the Sunset has realized a 61% decrease in sales volume.

Final Thoughts:

The Sunset is a neighborhood we keep a close eye on, whether the theory that it is a good SF barometer is true or not.  The neighborhood has experienced a big hit here in the first part of ’09, with respect to sales prices and volume.  The two usually go hand in hand… if sales volume is low, sales prices come down (the reverse is also true).  The 25% correction from peak is pretty much in line with the overall San Francisco market.  Of course, as we’ve written about many times before, different market segments react at different times.  The low end first, followed by the middle, then the high end.  We feel that declines here in the middle market have slowed but will take a while to stabilize.

For more neighborhood analysis, click HERE.

• There have been 21 single family home sales in Noe Valley thus far in ’09.
• That’s about a 38% drop in activity over the same time period as last year.
• Despite a decline in activity, Noe still rides high in the City for overall transactions in 2009.
• The SFH median from 1/1/09 thru 4/15/09 is $1,210,000.
• That’s a 17% drop from the same time period as last year when adjusted for inflation/deflation.

Noe Valley

Now, we’re well aware that just 21 data points here in 2009 is a smidge on the low side for any trending analysis, but we cannot escape the fact that a trend is indeed emerging.

First, let’s take a good look at the median sales price for single family homes in Noe over the last 14 years.  We’ve adjusted the prices for inflation so we can isolate market movement from the changing value of the dollar.  And if you follow our blog, you’ll know that we’d love to go back further than 14 years but computerized MLS did not exist then.  With that said, here is the median trend for Noe from January 1st thru April 15th of each respective year:

Noe SFH Medians thru Tax Day (click to enlarge)

This chart indicates that 2009 has begun close to 2004 prices for Noe homes.

Here are the numbers of sales occurring over the January 1 thru April 15 time period of each year, single family homes only:

Noe SFH Sales thru Tax Day (click to enlarge)

As you can see, sales have started out sluggishly for 2009.

Last, we plotted the high, median, and low sales for each year over the January 1 thru April 15 time period.  Here is the chart:

Hi, Med, Lo in Noe (click to enlarge)

All lines are showing a decline in ’09.  Hey that rhymes.  Seriously though, it looks as though Noe is off to a bit of a lackluster start in the new year and this could signal a ripe time for buyers.  Conversely, 2009 is not looking all that promising thus far for sellers, unless you have held your property for the long haul (which is what we preach over here).  We wouldn’t be surprised to see numbers spike up a bit in spring and summer, as open houses have been very busy and buyers are getting back into the market.  For those that are getting in and planning to hold long term, it seems like fairly good timing.

For more neighborhood trends, click HERE.

Time to put up dem dukes

Because both areas are large, we have a luxurious number of data points (sales) from which we derived median home values.  Single family homes are prominent in both neighborhoods, so all other property types were left out.  Median value readings were taken in the two areas (combining inner, central, and outer into one reading) and  plotted on a chart to see how each one has performed over time.  In order to isolate market performance, we’ve inflation adjusted the medians to control for the changing value of the dollar.

What did we find?

Sunset vs Richmond - Median Trends (click to enlarge)

• Let’s start with the obvious:  The Richmond is more expensive than the Sunset.
• The Richmond was more affected by the ’01 dip than the Sunset.
• Single family home values in both areas peaked in 2005.
• The Richmond beat out the Sunset with a 6.56% decline from peak.  The Sunset posted a 9.09% decline from peak.
• The Richmond has appreciated more over the long haul (percentage-wise).
• From the beginning to the end of our graph, the Richmond appreciated 241.36%.  The Sunset appreciated 223.29%.
• The Richmond was affected twice as much as the Sunset during the ’06 dip.
• Maybe this is an illusion, but the Sunset sure appears to be less susceptible to the market’s ups and downs.  It’s a smoother line.  This could be an indication of less volatility or the effect of more data points.  Not quite sure.

Here are the numbers of sales taking place in each area over time:

Richmond vs Sunset - # of Sales (click to enlarge)

• The Sunset beats the Richmond in sales volume.  This comes as no surprise as the area is larger and more affordable.
• The Richmond has averaged 153 single family home sales per year over our analysis.
• The Sunset has averaged 258 single family home sales per year over our analysis.
• Sales volume in the Richmond peaked in 1998.
• Sales volume in the Sunset peaked in 2004.
• The Richmond’s sales volume is down 34% from peak.
• The Sunset’s sales volume is down a little more, at 38% from peak.

Final Thoughts:

Both areas have demonstrated a fair amount of strength in a turbulent market, the Richmond holding up better out of the two thus far.  The Sunset is often looked at as a sort of barometer for San Francisco real estate.  We’ve heard people say if you want to know what’s generally going on in the City, look at the Sunset.  Not sure if we’re big believers in this philosophy, but it is interesting to consider.  It certainly is a refined line with all those sales.  Possibly in a future post we’ll dissect this statement to see if it holds any merit.

Volume is down in both areas but not at the levels we’ve seen in other markets around the City (which have been upwards of 50% in some cases).  Please remember that this is for Single Family Homes only.

For similar articles with stats and charts from around the City, click HERE.

We looked at median values for Condos/Co-ops/TICs/Lofts in the Inner Mission.  In order to incorporate recent economic forces, we compared the past six months performance to that of years past.  Beginning on September 21, 2008 and running through March 20, 2009, we calculated the median value for the neighborhood and then compared the results to the same time period going back 11 years.

It's time to "analyze this"...

Could we have limited our results to less than 6 months?  Actually yes, we wanted to.  Three months history would be more reliable.  However the challenge was that there were not enough sales (data points) to create a reliable trend.  We see the magic number of sales to create a reliable median value trend to be somewhere around 25.

Could we have gone back more than 11 years?  We did, but we found that the early years had very little data (less than 20 sales during this time frame per year) and thus they were left out.  And of course pre-1995, MLS has no recorded sales as it was not the glorious database it is today… it was a huge periodical publication.

What we’re left with in this particular study is a 6-month analysis going back 11 years.  Here are the results for the Inner Mission:

Inner Mission Analysis (click to enlarge)

• Median sales prices for years past were adjusted for the changing value of the dollar using an inflation calculator.
• The years from 1999 to 2001 show the most impressive run-up in this data set.
• The market appeared to correct very quickly, as things were back to “normal” by 2002.
• As of late, the median has held up remarkably well.  There has been a fall of just 4.72% since peak.

Here are the numbers of sales (data points) we are dealing with in this analysis:

Number of Sales Over this Time Period (click to enlarge)

• You can see that years ’95 through ’98 were omitted from the first chart due to low numbers of sales recorded in the MLS.
• The number of sales occurring in the past 6 months is almost half what it was the year before over the same period.

Final Thoughts:

Overall, I am a bit surprised to see that values have held up fairly well in the Inner Mission over the past 6 months.  With the volume of sales decreasing by nearly half, one would expect more than a 4.27% decrease in values year over year.  I am curious to see how this chart takes shape in the future months.  We have a spring and summer surge coming, which will give us more data points in a shorter period of time.  This will give us more insight into this market’s behavior and we’ll be here to keep you posted all along the way.  Thanks for checking in and we would love to hear your impressions of the market.  It’s as easy as leaving a comment below!

For more neighborhood analysis, click HERE.

We tracked the minimum sale, median sale, and maximum sale over a 14 year period (dating back to 1995).  2008 was the last full year of data we have, so the analysis stops there.  We considered including an incomplete 2009, but there have only been 7 sales thus far… not very telling as how the year will shape up.  This is the first analysis we’ve done on our blog of this sort, so we’re still pondering the things that can be learned from this information.  Here is the chart and some initial thoughts:

Floor to ceiling in Bernal Heights (click to enlarge)

• First and foremost, all figures were adjusted for inflation.  This controls for the changing value of the dollar over time and gives us a more accurate view of market behavior
• The floor shows four peaks in our analysis, with the highest one occurring in 2005.
• The ceiling shows four peaks, the highest one occurring last year in 2008.
• It appears that the ceiling peaks lag the floor peaks a little.  Maybe this is our mind playing tricks on us because we’ve seen this trend in other analyses.  It very well could be another indication of the high end lagging the low end in any given market.
• The median shows 2008 prices ended up just a little lower than 2004′s posting.  This is great news for people buying in the neighborhood — not so great for those selling.
• Interestingly, the floor showed an uptick in 2008.  We’ll follow this to see how it takes shape in 2009.
• The ceiling broke new barriers in 2008 with the sale of 306 Mullen Avenue, an architectural gem that busted all the comps for the neighborhood.

Final Thoughts:

This analysis was a bit of an experiment.  We’re putting an awful lot of stock in those high and low sales painting some type of picture of the marketplace.  For all we know the floor and ceiling could be completely useless, unless of course you are remodeling your home.  We intend to take this analysis to other neighborhoods in the near future to further develop our opinion of its merit.

For now, the floors and ceilings may not serve so well in trending as they do simply by giving us a spread.  We’ve seen the gap between the lowest sale and the highest sale increase over time in Bernal Heights.  The gap itself may just be the interesting info we’re looking for in all of this.  We’re now eager to find out how polarized different neighborhoods around the City are, and why.

Oh, and for those of you curious about the comp buster at 306 Mullen, here are some pics:

For more articles analyzing San Francisco’s neighborhoods, click HERE.

And around the final corner, it's Nob Hill in front... Nob Hill in front!

How did they fare?

Condo Comparison (click to enlarge)

With just a 1.03% decline in values from peak, Nob Hill shows the best performance through the end of ’08.  Pacific Heights and Russian Hill were neck and neck, with 5.61% and 5.77% declines from peak respectively.  Condos in the Marina have come down 7.96% from peak, but they have also gone up the most in the long haul.

We’ll keep our eyes on how this chart evolves in ’09, and of course report our findings.  Keep tuning in!

For more median price trends in San Francisco’s neighborhoods, click HERE.

We decided to take a look at the median sales price trend in the neighborhood as far back as MLS would allow (1995).  We adjusted the medians for inflation using formulas from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so we could control for the changing value of the dollar.

Is Sunnyside up or down?

To find out, continue reading –>

Sunnyside SFH Median Values (inflation adjusted) - Click to enlarge

• Sunnyside SFH medians peaked in 2005.
• The median has come down 12.54% since peak.

Sunnyside SFH - Number of Sales Each Year

• Sunnyside has averaged 57 sales per year over the past 14 years.
• 2008 posted the lowest transaction volume in recent memory, with just 31 sales.  That’s nearly half the average!
• The year of the bull?  2005 not only posted the highest median sales price, but also the most sales.

Appreciation if you held your home for...

• We see here that you would have had to own your home for 5 years to realize a gain (in general).
• The poor performance of the past few years is a trend we’ve seen all over the City, with some parts more affected than others.
• If you bought in 2003 or prior, you’re still doing okay despite the real estate meltdown (assuming the median).
• The worst time to buy was in 2005.  Hopefully those who purchased then had long term plans of ownership.

Final Thoughts:

There’s no doubt that homeowners are battered and bruised at this point in time, but to see Sunnyside down just 12.54% from peak is reassuring for this area.  Sales volume is half what it used to be, which is on par with what we’ve seen in other locales.  Homes are now selling somewhere between their 2003/2004 levels.  Compared to San Francisco as a whole, where we saw a drop of 9.9% for single family homes from peak, Sunnyside slid a bit further.  That being said, we’ll take a 12.54% loss over the 25-50% losses we’ve seen in other parts of the Bay Area (and country) any day of the week.

For more “Getting Granular” articles, click HERE.