Archive for the ‘Getting Granular’ Category
September 3, 2009
After writing “Getting Granular in Noe Valley” a couple days ago [which has received tons of hits], we figured it would make for a nice contrast to take a swing at Excelsior. Located just south of I-280, the nabe is home to many interesting people and houses. Jerry Garcia even once called the Excelsior home.
Excelsior street signs - Photos by Jef Poskanzer
Like Noe Valley, the neighborhood has posted a generous amount of sales in 2009, making it a good candidate for a trending analysis. And since it’s significantly different than Noe, it will be a fun little exercise.
Single family home medians (click to enlarge)
- The first thing I notice from this chart is how much smoother the line is compared to Noe’s, indicating that Excelsior may not be as sensitive to short-term perturbations in the market as Noe.
- Prices have fallen 32.34% from peak (in inflation adjusted terms), compared to Noe’s 22.05%. Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Excelsior, Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009 excelsior trends, 2009 noe valley trends, Excelsior, Noe Valley, san francisco real estate | 2 Comments »
September 1, 2009
Looking down towards Noe Valley - courtesy of Wikimedia
In Noe Valley there have been 85 single family home sales recorded in MLS for 2009. You know what that means! Time for a trending analysis, as we have a nice long string of sales for the year. What did we look at?
We calculated the median sales price for single family homes in Noe for the period of January 1 through September 1 of each year dating back to 1995. A trend became clear after plotting the values on a graph. But what about inflation? We added a second line to show what median values look like over the same time period when inflation is accounted for. The results?
Noe Valley SFH Trends (click to enlarge)
- In inflation-adjusted terms, Noe’s 2009 median is somewhere between 2003 and 2004.
- Values have come down 22.05% from peak. Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Noe Valley | Tagged 2009 noe valley, noe valley home prices, noe valley medians, noe valley trends, real estate trends, san francisco real estate | 4 Comments »
July 12, 2009
It’s time to battle. The first half of ’09 is over and we’re anxious to see which condo market has fared better through the roughest patch of real estate roadway we’ve driven over in quite some time.
It's time to battle! Is Obama about to flick McCain's ear? Nice.
In this analysis, we compared condominium median trends in two large market areas. The first is what we’ll refer to as “SOMA”, and includes South of Market, South Beach, and Mission Bay. See districts 9d, 9f, and 9h on THIS map.
The second market area is what we’ll refer to as “North of California” and includes the neighborhoods of the Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, North Waterfront, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Russian Hill, and Nob Hill. Districts 7a, 7b, 7c, 7d may be seen on THIS map, and 8c, 8d, 8e, 8g, and 8h, on THIS map.
The two market areas we defined differ significantly from one another. We’ve written about SOMA’s higher inventory levels in the past, and since the overall market has taken a turn for the worse, we would like to see if those inventory levels have indeed affected values. North of California has tighter inventory levels and less growth (in the form of newly built homes). It seems more stable, but what will the numbers say? Lets find out, shall we?!?
To see the charts, continue reading –>
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 2009 trends, condo market trends, north of california street, san francisco, san francisco real estate, san francisco real estate trends, soma | Leave a Comment »
June 5, 2009
Wish we were referring to a magical moment as the sun dips below the Pacific horizon on a gorgeous evening… but we’re referring to “The Sunset”. Sales price trends in the neighborhood have long been thought to be a decent barometer of the overall San Francisco housing market. Why? The Sunset is a large, fairly stable neighborhood with many similar homes selling around San Francisco’s median.
So let’s take a look at the median sales price from January 1, 2009 through June 1, 2009. And better yet, lets compare this year’s median to that of years past, over the same time period. This should give us a glimpse into present day conditions, not just in the Sunset, but into the San Francisco market as a whole (if the aforementioned theory holds any weight). And as our readers know, we’d love to go back further than 1995 but MLS does not support that. Here is the trend:
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Sunset District | Tagged median sales prices, real estate trends, san francisco, san francisco real estate, sunset san francisco, sunset trends | Leave a Comment »
April 16, 2009
Noe Valley is one of the few neighborhoods in San Francisco that has registered enough single family home sales in 2009 to start to see some sort of trend. That’s why we’ve chosen it for this post. Here are some stats:
- There have been 21 single family home sales in Noe Valley thus far in ’09.
- That’s about a 38% drop in activity over the same time period as last year.
- Despite a decline in activity, Noe still rides high in the City for overall transactions in 2009.
- The SFH median from 1/1/09 thru 4/15/09 is $1,210,000.
- That’s a 17% drop from the same time period as last year when adjusted for inflation/deflation.
Noe Valley
Now, we’re well aware that just 21 data points here in 2009 is a smidge on the low side for any trending analysis, but we cannot escape the fact that a trend is indeed emerging.
First, let’s take a good look at the median sales price for single family homes in Noe over the last 14 years. We’ve adjusted the prices for inflation so we can isolate market movement from the changing value of the dollar. And if you follow our blog, you’ll know that we’d love to go back further than 14 years but computerized MLS did not exist then. With that said, here is the median trend for Noe from January 1st thru April 15th of each respective year: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Neighborhood Info, Noe Valley | Tagged 2009, district 5c, Noe Valley, prices, san francisco, san francisco real estate, single family home trends, trends | Leave a Comment »
March 27, 2009
The Sunset and Richmond Districts are two of the largest neighborhoods in the entire City. Both are comprised of “Inner”, “Central”, and “Outer” sections. They occupy the western side of the City and are separated by Golden Gate Park. Out of pure curiosity, we wanted to see how trends in the two areas have differed over the years.
Time to put up dem dukes
Because both areas are large, we have a luxurious number of data points (sales) from which we derived median home values. Single family homes are prominent in both neighborhoods, so all other property types were left out. Median value readings were taken in the two areas (combining inner, central, and outer into one reading) and plotted on a chart to see how each one has performed over time. In order to isolate market performance, we’ve inflation adjusted the medians to control for the changing value of the dollar.
What did we find?
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Richmond District, Sunset District | Tagged median value trends, richmond, sales prices, san francisco, san francisco real estate, single family homes, sunset, Tips | Leave a Comment »
March 20, 2009
As you know, the pace of change occurring in our country’s economic/financial system has been monumental during the past 6 months. In analyzing real estate trends, it’s nice to be able to look at the most recent data to gain insight on how these huge forces impact values locally. The challenge is having enough data to see a trend and allowing enough time for the forces at play to affect prices (there is undoubtedly a lag).
We looked at median values for Condos/Co-ops/TICs/Lofts in the Inner Mission. In order to incorporate recent economic forces, we compared the past six months performance to that of years past. Beginning on September 21, 2008 and running through March 20, 2009, we calculated the median value for the neighborhood and then compared the results to the same time period going back 11 years.
It's time to "analyze this"...
Could we have limited our results to less than 6 months? Actually yes, we wanted to. Three months history would be more reliable. However the challenge was that there were not enough sales (data points) to create a reliable trend. We see the magic number of sales to create a reliable median value trend to be somewhere around 25.
Could we have gone back more than 11 years? We did, but we found that the early years had very little data (less than 20 sales during this time frame per year) and thus they were left out. And of course pre-1995, MLS has no recorded sales as it was not the glorious database it is today… it was a huge periodical publication.
What we’re left with in this particular study is a 6-month analysis going back 11 years. Here are the results for the Inner Mission: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Inner Mission, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged condos, district 9c, inflation, Inner Mission, lofts, median sales prices, san francisco, san francisco real estate, tics, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
March 17, 2009
Bernal Heights is a fantastic neighborhood. It has an eclectic mix of homes, flavors, and views. Spend some time there and you’ll find that Bernal grows on you more and more. Single family homes make up the bulk of Bernal’s inventory. They run the gamut from small and affordable to artsy, luxurious, and even risqué. That’s why we’ve taken the opportunity to do a floor, median, and ceiling comparison for the ‘hood.
We tracked the minimum sale, median sale, and maximum sale over a 14 year period (dating back to 1995). 2008 was the last full year of data we have, so the analysis stops there. We considered including an incomplete 2009, but there have only been 7 sales thus far… not very telling as how the year will shape up. This is the first analysis we’ve done on our blog of this sort, so we’re still pondering the things that can be learned from this information. Here is the chart and some initial thoughts:
Floor to ceiling in Bernal Heights (click to enlarge)
Posted in Bernal Heights, Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged 306 mullen avenue, Bernal Heights, high sale, low sale, median sales price, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips, trends | 5 Comments »
March 12, 2009
We’ve put together a chart that pits four of San Francisco’s most prestigious neighborhoods against one another… Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Pacific Heights, and the Marina. Median condominium values were plotted over a 14 year history, dating back to 1995 (this is as far as MLS will go). We adjusted the median prices to account for inflation so we could isolate market appreciation.
And around the final corner, it's Nob Hill in front... Nob Hill in front!
How did they fare?
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Marina, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Nob Hill, Pacific Heights, Russian Hill | Tagged appreciation, condominiums, condos, depreciation, Marina, nob hill, Pacific Heights, russian hill, san francisco, san francisco real estate | Leave a Comment »
March 2, 2009
Sunnyside, aka District 4S, is located just south of Mount Davidson. San Francisco City College and the Sunnyside Conservatory are located here. The neighborhood is chock full of cute single family homes and has quite an interesting history.
We decided to take a look at the median sales price trend in the neighborhood as far back as MLS would allow (1995). We adjusted the medians for inflation using formulas from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so we could control for the changing value of the dollar.
Is Sunnyside up or down?
To find out, continue reading –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Appreciation and Hold Times, Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Sunnyside | Tagged appreciation, depreciation, district 4s, rates, sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate, single family homes, Sunnyside, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
February 23, 2009
It’s time to narrow in on a San Francisco neighborhood again! This time we’ve chosen Potrero Hill and are putting the condo market under the magnifying glass. We looked at median sales prices for condos over a 14-year history and have compiled the findings here for your convenience.
The City as seen from Potrero Hill
To see all the stats and trends, continue reading –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Appreciation and Hold Times, Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Potrero Hill | Tagged appreciation, condominiums, condos, depreciation, potrero hill, sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate, trends | 1 Comment »
February 9, 2009
South Beach is an interesting part of the City to analyze. There has been so much development occurring in the past couple decades to make it a poster-child for urban renaissance. However, with rapid change comes big gambling. Big winners and in some cases, big losers.
"I've got a pair of South Beaches and a pair of Nob Hills... what 'chu got?"
We took a close look at the South Beach condominium market (which includes lofts) to see what types of trends are going on in the ‘hood. We’ve looked at trends here before, but we’ve taken the analysis a step further by 1) inflation-adjusting the values to account for the changing value of the dollar, and 2) overlaid the neighborhood trend with that of the entire City to gain a sense of relation.
Before we take a look at the trends, a few points about the data must be made. First, the data comes from MLS (like all of our analysis). Developers who are selling brand new condos (for example, at the Infinity) do not put their sales prices in the MLS. This is kept secret so they can adjust their sales prices on the fly, based on demand. You can thank them for that… it’s not our doing! Even though new development sales are left out of the analysis does not render the data useless, however. Resales (sales from one person to another) are tracked in the MLS, and it’s the resale market owners should be most concerned with.
With that said, here’s a look at what’s going on with South Beach condos on the whole: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Appreciation and Hold Times, Getting Granular, Market Check Up, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, South Beach | Tagged condominiums, condos, infinity, lofts, medians, san francisco, san francisco real estate, soma, south beach, south of market, trends, values | 1 Comment »
February 6, 2009
What’s going on in Potrero Hill lately? We’ve seen a few interesting single family home listings in the area as of late and were curious as to what they are up against in today’s market. As we learned in a previous post, single family homes have come down 9.9% since peak (inflation adjusted), and 7.4% if you leave out District 10. So how does Potrero Hill’s single family home market compare to that? Has it dodged bullets or sputtered and stalled? That’s what you’re about to find out.
Are single family homes sputtering in Potrero Hill?
Continue reading to see the trend –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Potrero Hill | Tagged analysis, houses, median sales price, potrero hill, sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate, single family homes, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
January 30, 2009
We’ve been busy. Very busy. We have been putting together our first post called “Market Check-Up”, in which we’ll delve deep into a local micro-market and give you all the stats, trends and analysis you could ever hope for. This is like our Getting Granular series on steroids. In this series you’ll see:
- Median Sales Price trends over the past 14 years, inflation adjusted using the Consumer Price Index!
- Sales Volume, as compared to the overall San Francisco market. You’ll learn how this neighborhood has increased or decreased in volume over time.
- How much appreciation or depreciation you would have realized if you owned your property for X amount of years (again, inflation adjusted).
- Year over year appreciation rates comparing our micro-market of choice to San Francisco as a whole. This will let you know if the neighborhood is a good or poor performer in relation to the entire City.
- Marketshare: You’ll learn how much of the overall San Francisco market this neighborhood is responsible for.
- Days on market trends and sales price to list price ratios.
- Absorption rates, numbers of Expired and Withdrawn listings.
- Add to that bullet points and commentary, and you’ve got yourself a good, all around micro-market “Check-Up”.
And we're underway!
Let’s get things started, shall we? The first neighborhood we’ve chosen is Pacific Heights and the property type is condominiums. Even if you’re not interested in this market segment, take a peek at the article so you can see all the glorious analysis that’s in store for your neighborhood soon.
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Appreciation and Hold Times, Getting Granular, Macro-Level Info, Market Check Up, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Pacific Heights | Tagged absorption, condo market, condominiums, Cow Hollow, days on market, district 7, Marina, median values, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, sales price, san francisco, san francisco real estate, stats, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
January 23, 2009
Lower Pacific Heights used to be called “Upper Fillmore”. With increasing property values over the past 20 years the area grew in affluence and wealth. The name “Lower Pacific Heights” became more and more popular and now the term “Upper Fillmore” is rarely used. San Francisco’s Japantown is located within Lower Pacific Heights.
Cherry blossoms bloom in Japantown
Since condominiums are common in the area, we took a look at condo price trends in Lower Pacific Heights since 1995. What we found was an average of 51 sales taking place in the ‘hood each year, and a trend of steady upward growth with a few requisite bumps and bruises along the way. Here’s a look at the chart:
Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Lower Pacific Heights, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged condo trends, condominiums, japantown, lower pacific heights, median sales price, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips | Leave a Comment »
