Getting Granular in ExcelsiorSeptember 3, 2009
After writing “Getting Granular in Noe Valley” a couple days ago [which has received tons of hits], we figured it would make for a nice contrast to take a swing at Excelsior. Located just south of I-280, the nabe is home to many interesting people and houses. Jerry Garcia even once called the Excelsior home.
Like Noe Valley, the neighborhood has posted a generous amount of sales in 2009, making it a good candidate for a trending analysis. And since it’s significantly different than Noe, it will be a fun little exercise.
- The first thing I notice from this chart is how much smoother the line is compared to Noe’s, indicating that Excelsior may not be as sensitive to short-term perturbations in the market as Noe.
- Prices have fallen 32.34% from peak (in inflation adjusted terms), compared to Noe’s 22.05%.
- 15.96% [about half] of the 32% decline occurred in the past year. Compare this to Noe’s, whose year over year decline was much more drastic (19 of 22%). This tells us that Excelsior reacted to the downturn first, and Noe lagged.
- The “peak” occurred in 2006, a full year before Noe’s peak.
- Excelsior’s current median is right around 2002′s [in inflation adjusted terms]. Noe’s current median was more comparable to 2003/04. Looks like Excelsior has regressed a bit further.
Sales volume for Excelsior:
- 1999 was the big year in Excelsior. A full decade later, we’re at about half the sales volume of ’99.
- Sales volume has remained relatively consistent since 2005.
It is an interesting comparison, Noe and Excelsior. Not many people would run an analysis like this. But that’s part of the fun.
Perhaps the most interesting thing to come out of this exercise is that Excelsior began its decline first. The first signs of decline were between 2006 and 2007. Noe didn’t show signs of decline until 2007-2008, a full year later. In a sense, Excelsior served as a leading indicator of what Noe would do. Is this a law? Hardly. But we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of using lower end markets to predict higher end markets, often with a year lead-time. If you look at the complete 15 year history, inflation-adjusted medians have increased 195% in Excelsior and 212% in Noe Valley. Not too far off from one another. In recent years, Excelsior has fallen more, but Noe has fallen faster. We predict that Excelsior will stabilize, or “hit bottom” before Noe. But we’ll of course have to wait another year to see how these graphs change. Keep tuning in, and keep truckin’!
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