Getting Granular in Noe Valley
September 1, 2009
Looking down towards Noe Valley - courtesy of Wikimedia
In Noe Valley there have been 85 single family home sales recorded in MLS for 2009. You know what that means! Time for a trending analysis, as we have a nice long string of sales for the year. What did we look at?
We calculated the median sales price for single family homes in Noe for the period of January 1 through September 1 of each year dating back to 1995. A trend became clear after plotting the values on a graph. But what about inflation? We added a second line to show what median values look like over the same time period when inflation is accounted for. The results?
Noe Valley SFH Trends (click to enlarge)
- In inflation-adjusted terms, Noe’s 2009 median is somewhere between 2003 and 2004.
- Values have come down 22.05% from peak.
- 19.94% of that decline occurred within the past year.
- The 2009 SFH median in Noe is $1,120,000. At its peak it was $1,436,850 (inflation adjusted).
- The “peak” occurred in 2007.
The next graph shows us sales volume for SFH’s in Noe dating back to ’95.
Noe SFH Sales Volume (click to enlarge)
- Sales volume peaked in 2004.
- Sales remain very consistent in Noe Valley and have not slid as much as other neighborhoods (particularly over the past 2 years).
- 2009′s sales may be slightly under-represented. Some homes have closed but have not been entered into MLS yet.
Final Thoughts
I get asked all the time how much home values have come down. The answer is never an easy one, as different property types in different neighborhoods have come down different amounts. But now we know the number for Noe single family homes, don’t we.
What do we make of this info? Will things continue downward? Maybe. Have things bottomed out? Tough to tell. Because we looked at numbers on an annual basis, we won’t be able to identify a bottom until we see what happens to 2010′s median. And that’s a while to wait. The nature of this type of analysis has pluses and minuses. The plus is that we get a nice long string of sales to compute that median. The minus is that it is looking back in time. The data lags the real-time market and we’ll have to wait until next year to see which direction the curve decides to go. If you’re in real estate for the long term, and I always suggest that you are, then an annual picture such as this may be of benefit. At least, I hope it is or I’ve wasted my last hour… hehe.
Is now a good time to buy? Depends.
For more Getting Granular articles, click HERE.
Arrian, I recently did an update on Noe Valley too, comparing medians to the city as a whole. Here’s the link: http://www.pegasusventures.net/wordpressblog/2009/09/16/focus-on-noe-valley/ Great work as usual. I’d be interested in knowing the methodology you use for “inflation adjustment.” Are you adjusting prices annually by CPI?
I am using the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculator which is based on CPI. See this page:
http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
Where do I learn to blog like this. Wow! Good job. i just started blogging (I’m a Realtor) and I inspire to write like this =)
Excellent blog post- Rarely do you see inflation accounted for in real estate appreciation calculations- Bravo!