Archive for April, 2009

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One of these things is not like the others…

April 18, 2009

A good friend and colleague of ours just came on the market with a stunning property located at 118-120 Cervantes Boulevard in the Marina.  While it deviates from the typical Marina style architecture, we welcome the new addition to the neighborhood and know that the style will most certainly strike a chord with some lucky buyer.  This home was on one of our pocket listing posts before it hit the open market, a good reason to keep visiting our blog if you’re currently shopping.  Here are some specs on this amazing new home:

  • Built in 2009
  • 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, 2 car parking
  • Around 2,992 square feet
  • Garden, 3 terraces, mezzanine level, den, office, 2nd partial kitchen
  • Eco-friendly, with solar panels and sustainable materials

Listing price is $3,000,000 and here are some screen-shots from the official website:

insidesfrealestate_64-apr-18-1045

insidesfrealestate_66-apr-18-1045

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High Speed Rail – It’s not just for CA anymore

April 18, 2009

President Obama released his vision for high speed rail across America on Thursday.  We have to say that it is quite remarkable and will definitely have an impact on how we get from Point A to Point B.  Full article HERE, courtesy of Scientific American.

Vision for High Speed Rail in America

Vision for High Speed Rail in America

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Noe Valley SFH performance thru Tax Day

April 16, 2009

Noe Valley is one of the few neighborhoods in San Francisco that has registered enough single family home sales in 2009 to start to see some sort of trend.  That’s why we’ve chosen it for this post.  Here are some stats:

  • There have been 21 single family home sales in Noe Valley thus far in ’09.
  • That’s about a 38% drop in activity over the same time period as last year.
  • Despite a decline in activity, Noe still rides high in the City for overall transactions in 2009.
  • The SFH median from 1/1/09 thru 4/15/09 is $1,210,000.
  • That’s a 17% drop from the same time period as last year when adjusted for inflation/deflation.
Noe Valley

Noe Valley

Now, we’re well aware that just 21 data points here in 2009 is a smidge on the low side for any trending analysis, but we cannot escape the fact that a trend is indeed emerging.

First, let’s take a good look at the median sales price for single family homes in Noe over the last 14 years.  We’ve adjusted the prices for inflation so we can isolate market movement from the changing value of the dollar.  And if you follow our blog, you’ll know that we’d love to go back further than 14 years but computerized MLS did not exist then.  With that said, here is the median trend for Noe from January 1st thru April 15th of each respective year: Read the rest of this entry ?

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Pocket Listings for 4/15/2009

April 16, 2009

What is a pocket listing? A pocket listing is a home that is not being advertised to the general public through the MLS or a listing that will come on the market in the future but right now is still a secret. Many homes in San Francisco sell while off the open market, so pocket listing culture is a big deal. Every week, we’ll be sharing info about pocket listings that we know about. Information on pocket listings is sparse and secretive, so pardon us if we seem short on details for the purposes of our blog. If you are interested in learning more, you can click HERE to contact us. Without further ado, here are this week’s pocket listings:

Pocket Listings!!
Out of our pocket and over to you

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What can we learn from Miami?

April 15, 2009

An article on CNN Money the other day got us thinking about the overall health of the San Francisco real estate market.  Sure, prices are down.  No market has been immune to the country’s economic downturn.  But some have been hit with a cold while others are bedridden with pneumonia.

Time for a check up

Time for a check up

The article mentioned above talks about the Miami real estate market.  Some tidbits:

  • There are 13,200 homes for sale in Miami right now.
  • There are 21,600 condos for sale in Miami right now.

We’re not alarmed by these numbers… after all, Miami is a very different market than San Francisco and comparing the two is not exactly “apples to apples”.  However, there is a way we can normalize data between the two markets to control for the differences.  We can accomplish this by looking at MSI, or months supply of inventory.  We’ve written about this metric before.  Basically, months supply of inventory is a measure of how many months it would take to sell off all of today’s inventory (active listings) if new listings ceased coming on the market immediately.  It is calculated by taking the total active listings in a market and dividing it by the number of homes under contract.  For example, lets say there are 10 condos for sale in a market and 5 have gone into contract during the current month.  This market has just 2 months supply of inventory, which is pretty hot.

Markets that have 0-3 months supply of inventory are considered hot.  3-6 months is in balance, 6-9 months is cool, and 9 or more months is cold.

When we compare Miami to San Francisco, here’s what we currently see:

  • Miami currently has a 52-month glut, I, I mean, supply of condos.  That means it would take over 4 years for all of today’s active condo listings to sell if new units stopped coming on the market immediately.  Add to that shadow inventory, foreclosures (which are a huge problem there) and pocket listings and… Holy toledo!!  Ok, now we’re alarmed.
  • San Francisco, according to the highly respected real estate analysis company Terradatum, has Read the rest of this entry ?
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Score another one for the cities

April 13, 2009

We’re pretty open-minded people over here.  But there is one bias we have that we’ll admit to.  And that bias is that city living is better for people, better for housing, and better for the planet.  If you’re a suburbanite, please note that the following is just an opinion and is not intended to insult anyone. We’re simply making a case for why we love cities so much.

Lets start with the basics.  Cities are meccas for ideas.  Many types of people from many different places live together in a dynamic entity called a city.   Diversity is the spice of life, and cities are where you find the most diversity, not just in people, but in the ideas they bring along.  These ideas manifest themselves in culture — art, food, entertainment, clothing, architecture, and so on.  We’re all for culture,  and the heterogeneous nature of cities’ populations lends itself to new ideas, innovation, and progress.

Cities beam with diversity

Cities beam with diversity

Next up, density.  Because city cores are dense, efficiencies grow out of higher concentrations of people.  Efficiencies such as mass transit, highrises with tiny geographic footprints (how many trees do you have to cut down to build a highrise versus a subdivision with the same population?), and striving for sustainability on a grand scale all benefit from density.

With regard to real estate – particularly in San Francisco – scarcity plays a major role in home values.  Cities that have geographic boundaries such as mountain ranges, lakes, and oceans tend to have limited land on which to build.  And certain cities *cough* San Francisco *cough* have relatively static levels of housing– especially in certain neighborhoods.  These forces create an environment where housing prices tend to be more stable than in areas where development has no natural or political barriers.  Case in point, an article that was released by Reuters on Friday…

It discusses how badly suburban and exurban communities have been hit during the current housing downturn.  The reasons for the lack of resilience are simple.  People are sick of high gas prices, long commutes, spending half their lives in traffic jams, dependency on the automobile for everything, and the McDonaldization of housing.  People are falling back in love with city living again, and this is a mega-trend we’ve noticed taking shape around the country for over a decade now.  This most recent downturn’s impact on the ‘burbs gives us further evidence that the mega-trend is very real.

Check out the article by clicking HERE if you wish, but if you don’t have time, here are some quotes:

“What we’re already seeing is these new, very cheaply made suburbs showing how little resilience they have to economic fluctuations. I see them becoming not only more desperate, I see them becoming potentially nonviable,” says Jeff Speck, an urban planner and co-author of “Suburban Nation: The Rise of Sprawl and the Decline of the American Dream.”

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“There is an increased interest in people living closer to their work, living in more complete neighborhoods, and living near transit,” says Joe Molinaro, who manages the trade group’s smart-growth program.

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One of the key advantages of the suburbs — their affordability — is eroding as well. A recent Brookings study of the Washington region found that transportation costs eclipse any housing savings for those who live more than 15 miles from work.

Source:  Reuters.com 4/10/2009 Andy Sullivan

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Are views your thing? Then check this place out.

April 13, 2009

How could one not dig the view from Twin Peaks?  It’s an amazing perspective on our beautiful city.  3340 Market Street just came on the market and although a little lower on the hill, boasts amazing views of San Francisco at pretty much the same angle as seen from the lookout atop Twin Peaks.

The 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath home was originally built in 1938 and has been completely remodeled (well, either that or this particular builder in ’38 was way ahead of his time).  Extravagances include a Miele kitchen, huge roof deck with stunning views, private garden, master suite featuring spa bath with views, media room with built-in surround sound and custom home audio throughout, wine cellar, solar powered radiant heat and hot water, and did we mention the views??

Some people think views are overrated, and that’s all fine and well, but we contend that having a sweet view is like having an amazing piece of art hanging on your wall.  Except this art is in 3-D and constantly changing.  Orange and purple skies, pink fog, twinkling city lights, sun, moon, stars, and a Bay that changes colors based on the environment’s ambient lighting.  Yes, a view is definitely a treat.

Price?  $2,575,000 and on the market for just 2 days.

Not to shabby...

Not too shabby...

3340 Market hits the, er, um, market.

3340 Market hits the, er, um, market.

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SF Ranked #1 Walking City by Prevention Mag

April 12, 2009

Prevention Magazine has ranked the top 100 walking cities in the US, and San Francisco was crowned champ.  It’s something we’ve heard repeatedly, from city-dwelling friends to Walkscore.com… San Francisco is a walker’s paradise!

Matter of fact, we’d wager that not only can residents tell someone how to get from Point A to Point B on foot (or in a wheelchair), but to also let them know which route is the flattest.  Yep, people all over this great city love getting around on their feet.  It’s this fact that leads to our wonderful neighborhood sidewalks, packed with Mom & Pop shops, cafes, stores, bars, barbers, and of course, people.  The pedestrian experience in San Francisco is anything but pedestrian, and enjoying this aspect of San Francisco’s character is one of the major lifestyle amenities that makes living here worth the price.

And those “Honorable Mentions?”

2. Boston
3. New York
4. Philadelphia
5. Chicago
6. Washington D.C.
7. Seattle
8. Honolulu
9. Portland, Ore.
10. Pittsburgh

HERE is the article from Prevention Magazine‘s website if you want to see the full 100.

So much to do while walking the City... such as our amazing farmers markets.

So much to do while walking the City... such as our amazing farmers' markets.

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Low End Smokin’, High End Hurtin’

April 9, 2009

The first quarter has been interesting.  We’ve broken the market into price segments and tallied up the action going on in each bracket.  Then we compared this year’s first quarter activity to the first quarter of 2008.  The numbers are telling, and they probably explain why medians have come down so far this year.  Here are the bullet points from our research:

  • Activity in the lowest price bracket, under $499,999, actually increased by nearly 15% year over year.
  • The next bracket, $500,000 thru $999,999 saw a drop in activity of nearly 29% year over year.
  • $1M thru $1,999,999 saw a more significant drop in activity, with a 55.78% decline in the number of transactions compared to Q1 2008.
  • And the highest portion of the market, $2M and above, is hurting the most, with a 71.08% drop in activity!
  • Total Sales Volume for all price brackets is down nearly 35% year over year thus far.
  • With more action taking place on the low end of the market and less on the high end, it’s no wonder why median prices are down so much this year.
After putting the market under the microscope, we've determined that the low end is smokin'!

After putting the market under the microscope, we've determined that the low end is smokin'!

When we published our Q1 2009 Report, we mentioned that we had noticed these trends in the marketplace, and now we have the numbers to prove the point.  This is very useful information if you’re in the market right now.  As we mentioned in our report, the time is ripening for buyers to get into the higher ends of the market.  Jumbo money has slightly loosened up recently and rates have eased.  If you’re selling on the low end, it could be a good time for you as well.

Want the full spreadsheet?  Click HERE.

*Please note that the total number of sales is for San Francisco only, and property types include single family homes, condominiums, stock cooperatives, lofts, TICs, and 2-4 unit buildings.

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Pocket Listings for 4/8/2009

April 9, 2009

What is a pocket listing? A pocket listing is a home that is not being advertised to the general public through the MLS or a listing that will come on the market in the future but right now is still a secret. Many homes in San Francisco sell while off the open market, so pocket listing culture is a big deal. Every week, we’ll be sharing info about pocket listings that we know about. Information on pocket listings is sparse and secretive, so pardon us if we seem short on details for the purposes of our blog. If you are interested in learning more, you can click HERE to contact us. Without further ado, here are this week’s pocket listings:

Pocket Listings!!
Out of our pocket and over to you

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Tuesday Tour Show-Stoppers IV

April 8, 2009

Another Tuesday Tour is in the books and we’ve selected 10 of 30 properties we saw today as stand-outs.  Our favorites of the day?

1724-1728 Grant Avenue in Telegraph Hill.  Amazing vintage property with a $500K remodel and our favorite bread bakery just a couple blocks away at Grant & Union.

Runner up is 231 Holly Park Circle in Bernal Heights.  Artsy design and full of gadgets, this home would’ve received 1st place any other week.

A group of us on tour today.... (j/k)

A group of us on tour today.... (j/k)

If you have no idea what the “Tuesday Tour” is, click HERE.

Here are our top picks for the week — click the property addresses for full details: Read the rest of this entry ?

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SF ranks #2 in nation for greenest skyline

April 7, 2009

According to a Forbes.com article released today, San Francisco ranks #2 in the nation for having the “Greenest Skyline.”  What is a green skyline?  It is measured by the number of buildings that meet certain energy efficiency standards.  So who beat out SF?  Find out by reading the article.  You will either laugh or cry.

Click HERE to check out the article.

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Real Estate Market Cycles 101

April 7, 2009

In the April 2009 edition of Realtor Magazine, there was a particularly interesting article about real estate market cycles.  It addressed issues such as inventory levels, appreciation, and stages of a market cycle.  Some of the bullet points include:

  • Appreciation was out of whack from 2000-2006, a time in which values went up on average 89%.
  • The market is in balance when there is 5-6 months of inventory available.
  • The stages of a market cycle resemble Elisabeth Kubler-Ross’s states of death and dying.  Optimism, Excitement, Euphoria, Denial, Fear, Panic, Despondency, Depression, Hope and back to Optimism.

We scanned the most interesting box, which details these bullets.

Market Cycle Info (click to enlarge)

Market Cycle Info (click to enlarge)

We’re big believers in keeping close tabs on inventory levels in individual neighborhoods.  We have put together a spreadsheet that contains all of San Francisco’s neighborhoods, how many properties have sold during Q1 2009, how many are for sale, and how many months of inventory there are in each.  From these figures we are able to determine which neighborhoods are:

  • Strong sellers’ markets
  • Sellers’ markets
  • In balance
  • Buyers’ markets
  • Strong buyers’ markets.

You may be surprised at the results from Q1 ’09.  Because the spreadsheet is too large to post here on the blog, you may contact us if you’d like a copy for yourself.  We continuously update this spreadsheet throughout the year so we can track the individual neighborhoods.

And why do we do all this?  We’re big believers in the notion that there are a myriad of opportunities no matter the market’s condition.  The key is understanding where they are. And it’s info like this that paints a picture of where the opportunities lie.

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The 5 Least Expensive Homes For Sale in Glen Park

April 6, 2009

Glen Park, a cute San Francisco neighborhood, currently has 10 single family homes for sale.  We’ve selected the five least expensive ones to report on here.  But before we do, here are some stats for you left-brainers:

  • Total homes for sale right now:  10
  • Total homes in contract right now:  1
  • Total homes sold since 1st of year:  8
  • Total homes withdrawn/expired since 1st of year:  4
  • Total homes back on market:  1
  • Highest active listing – $2,249,000 at 23 Laidley.
  • Highest sold in 2009 – $1,400,000 at 50 Hiliritas

Now, how about those listings?  First up, we have 208 Surrey.  Listed at $895,000, this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home has ~1,465 square feet and was constructed in 1908.  It is steps from Glen Park Village and offers bright rooms with vaulted ceilings on the upper level.  You can click the address for more details on any of these homes.


208 Surrey St, San Francisco
$895,000


Coming in at #4 on our least expensive single family home countdown is 145 Swiss Avenue.  This 1950′s home sports 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, is a short distance to Glen Park Canyon, and a quick walk to the Village.  It is currently listed at $799,000 and has been on the market for 5 days.  It sold for $900,000 just two years ago on 3/27/07.


145 Swiss Ave, San Francisco
$799,000


For homes 3, 2, and 1, continue reading!  Read the rest of this entry ?

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Q1 2009 Report Now Available

April 5, 2009

Where have we been the past couple of days?  On a Bahamas beach swinging in a hammock under a couple of palm trees, umbrella drink in hand?  Not quite.  We’ve been knee-deep in spreadsheets, crunching numbers for the first quarter so we can bring you our Q1 2009 Report.

The findings are very interesting and is worth a read if you follow the market closely.  Don’t worry, it’s just a 1-pager.  Our Q1 2009 Report is available in a PDF file, downloadable here:

Click this sentence to download the Q1 2009 San Francisco Real Estate Report

Someday.... someday....

Someday.... someday....

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