Noe Valley SFH performance thru Tax Day
April 16, 2009Noe Valley is one of the few neighborhoods in San Francisco that has registered enough single family home sales in 2009 to start to see some sort of trend. That’s why we’ve chosen it for this post. Here are some stats:
- There have been 21 single family home sales in Noe Valley thus far in ’09.
- That’s about a 38% drop in activity over the same time period as last year.
- Despite a decline in activity, Noe still rides high in the City for overall transactions in 2009.
- The SFH median from 1/1/09 thru 4/15/09 is $1,210,000.
- That’s a 17% drop from the same time period as last year when adjusted for inflation/deflation.
Noe Valley
Now, we’re well aware that just 21 data points here in 2009 is a smidge on the low side for any trending analysis, but we cannot escape the fact that a trend is indeed emerging.
First, let’s take a good look at the median sales price for single family homes in Noe over the last 14 years. We’ve adjusted the prices for inflation so we can isolate market movement from the changing value of the dollar. And if you follow our blog, you’ll know that we’d love to go back further than 14 years but computerized MLS did not exist then. With that said, here is the median trend for Noe from January 1st thru April 15th of each respective year:
Noe SFH Medians thru Tax Day (click to enlarge)
This chart indicates that 2009 has begun close to 2004 prices for Noe homes.
Here are the numbers of sales occurring over the January 1 thru April 15 time period of each year, single family homes only:
Noe SFH Sales thru Tax Day (click to enlarge)
As you can see, sales have started out sluggishly for 2009.
Last, we plotted the high, median, and low sales for each year over the January 1 thru April 15 time period. Here is the chart:
Hi, Med, Lo in Noe (click to enlarge)
All lines are showing a decline in ’09. Hey that rhymes. Seriously though, it looks as though Noe is off to a bit of a lackluster start in the new year and this could signal a ripe time for buyers. Conversely, 2009 is not looking all that promising thus far for sellers, unless you have held your property for the long haul (which is what we preach over here). We wouldn’t be surprised to see numbers spike up a bit in spring and summer, as open houses have been very busy and buyers are getting back into the market. For those that are getting in and planning to hold long term, it seems like fairly good timing.
For more neighborhood trends, click HERE.
