Inside San Francisco Real Estate

The Sunset and Richmond Districts are two of the largest neighborhoods in the entire City.  Both are comprised of “Inner”, “Central”, and “Outer” sections.  They occupy the western side of the City and are separated by Golden Gate Park.  Out of pure curiosity, we wanted to see how trends in the two areas have differed over the years.

Time to put up dem dukes

Because both areas are large, we have a luxurious number of data points (sales) from which we derived median home values.  Single family homes are prominent in both neighborhoods, so all other property types were left out.  Median value readings were taken in the two areas (combining inner, central, and outer into one reading) and  plotted on a chart to see how each one has performed over time.  In order to isolate market performance, we’ve inflation adjusted the medians to control for the changing value of the dollar.

What did we find?

Sunset vs Richmond - Median Trends (click to enlarge)

• Let’s start with the obvious:  The Richmond is more expensive than the Sunset.
• The Richmond was more affected by the ’01 dip than the Sunset.
• Single family home values in both areas peaked in 2005.
• The Richmond beat out the Sunset with a 6.56% decline from peak.  The Sunset posted a 9.09% decline from peak.
• The Richmond has appreciated more over the long haul (percentage-wise).
• From the beginning to the end of our graph, the Richmond appreciated 241.36%.  The Sunset appreciated 223.29%.
• The Richmond was affected twice as much as the Sunset during the ’06 dip.
• Maybe this is an illusion, but the Sunset sure appears to be less susceptible to the market’s ups and downs.  It’s a smoother line.  This could be an indication of less volatility or the effect of more data points.  Not quite sure.

Here are the numbers of sales taking place in each area over time:

Richmond vs Sunset - # of Sales (click to enlarge)

• The Sunset beats the Richmond in sales volume.  This comes as no surprise as the area is larger and more affordable.
• The Richmond has averaged 153 single family home sales per year over our analysis.
• The Sunset has averaged 258 single family home sales per year over our analysis.
• Sales volume in the Richmond peaked in 1998.
• Sales volume in the Sunset peaked in 2004.
• The Richmond’s sales volume is down 34% from peak.
• The Sunset’s sales volume is down a little more, at 38% from peak.

Final Thoughts:

Both areas have demonstrated a fair amount of strength in a turbulent market, the Richmond holding up better out of the two thus far.  The Sunset is often looked at as a sort of barometer for San Francisco real estate.  We’ve heard people say if you want to know what’s generally going on in the City, look at the Sunset.  Not sure if we’re big believers in this philosophy, but it is interesting to consider.  It certainly is a refined line with all those sales.  Possibly in a future post we’ll dissect this statement to see if it holds any merit.

Volume is down in both areas but not at the levels we’ve seen in other markets around the City (which have been upwards of 50% in some cases).  Please remember that this is for Single Family Homes only.

For similar articles with stats and charts from around the City, click HERE.