From Floor to Ceiling in BernalMarch 17, 2009
Bernal Heights is a fantastic neighborhood. It has an eclectic mix of homes, flavors, and views. Spend some time there and you’ll find that Bernal grows on you more and more. Single family homes make up the bulk of Bernal’s inventory. They run the gamut from small and affordable to artsy, luxurious, and even risqué. That’s why we’ve taken the opportunity to do a floor, median, and ceiling comparison for the ‘hood.
We tracked the minimum sale, median sale, and maximum sale over a 14 year period (dating back to 1995). 2008 was the last full year of data we have, so the analysis stops there. We considered including an incomplete 2009, but there have only been 7 sales thus far… not very telling as how the year will shape up. This is the first analysis we’ve done on our blog of this sort, so we’re still pondering the things that can be learned from this information. Here is the chart and some initial thoughts:
- First and foremost, all figures were adjusted for inflation. This controls for the changing value of the dollar over time and gives us a more accurate view of market behavior
- The floor shows four peaks in our analysis, with the highest one occurring in 2005.
- The ceiling shows four peaks, the highest one occurring last year in 2008.
- It appears that the ceiling peaks lag the floor peaks a little. Maybe this is our mind playing tricks on us because we’ve seen this trend in other analyses. It very well could be another indication of the high end lagging the low end in any given market.
- The median shows 2008 prices ended up just a little lower than 2004′s posting. This is great news for people buying in the neighborhood — not so great for those selling.
- Interestingly, the floor showed an uptick in 2008. We’ll follow this to see how it takes shape in 2009.
- The ceiling broke new barriers in 2008 with the sale of 306 Mullen Avenue, an architectural gem that busted all the comps for the neighborhood.
This analysis was a bit of an experiment. We’re putting an awful lot of stock in those high and low sales painting some type of picture of the marketplace. For all we know the floor and ceiling could be completely useless, unless of course you are remodeling your home. We intend to take this analysis to other neighborhoods in the near future to further develop our opinion of its merit.
For now, the floors and ceilings may not serve so well in trending as they do simply by giving us a spread. We’ve seen the gap between the lowest sale and the highest sale increase over time in Bernal Heights. The gap itself may just be the interesting info we’re looking for in all of this. We’re now eager to find out how polarized different neighborhoods around the City are, and why.
Oh, and for those of you curious about the comp buster at 306 Mullen, here are some pics:
For more articles analyzing San Francisco’s neighborhoods, click HERE.