Getting Granular with Potrero Hill Condos
February 23, 2009It’s time to narrow in on a San Francisco neighborhood again! This time we’ve chosen Potrero Hill and are putting the condo market under the magnifying glass. We looked at median sales prices for condos over a 14-year history and have compiled the findings here for your convenience.
The City as seen from Potrero Hill
To see all the stats and trends, continue reading –>
Potrero Hill Condo Medians (click to enlarge)
This chart reminds me of an old trip to Six Flags when I was a kid. The red line is the median sales price for condos in Potrero Hill over the past 14 years. Medians were adjusted for inflation so we could see figures without the affect of the changing value of the dollar.
- We see a ridiculous amount of “appreciation” between 1999 and 2000. This could be partly real, and partly the batch of condos that sold in 2000. A jump like that is suspect.
- The peak lagged the rest of the condo market by about a year, as we see 2006 showing the highest medians for the area.
- The green line indicates condo medians across the entire city, and we include it to get a comparison to the Potrero Hill market.
- The blue line indicates condo medians across Districts 1-9 only.
- It is clear that condo prices have come down in Potrero Hill, around $100K from peak.
If you owned your condo for... (click to enlarge)
This chart is my favorite as it puts you in the shoes of a Potrero Hill condo owner. We’re seeing the following:
- You would have had to own your condo for 5 years to see any appreciation, but it is a handsome gain at that level.
- If you bought 4 years ago, you’re barely down.
- As we’ve seen on every chart like this, the longer you own, the better off you are.
And just how many condos have been selling in Potrero Hill year to year?
Sales volume - Potrero Hill Condos (click to enlarge)
- 2004 shattered all other records with 113 units being sold. Keep in mind, these are just condos – it does not include lofts, TIC’s, or stock co-ops.
- Interestingly, sales in 2008 edged upwards from 2007, but not by much. We’ve noticed a few developer “flips” in the neighborhood lately, so this could partially account for the small uptick.
- The average sales per year is 60, so 2008 was right on par.
For more neighborhood trends, click HERE.
i would love to see this chart but on a price/sq foot basis, i suspect it would show a bigger drop.