Archive for December, 2008
December 3, 2008
What the heck is a pocket listing? A pocket listing is a home that is not being advertised to the general public through the MLS or a listing that will come on the market in the future but right now is still a secret. Many homes in San Francisco sell while off the open market, so pocket listing culture is a big deal. Every week, we’ll be sharing info about pocket listings that we know about. Information on pocket listings is sparse and secretive, so pardon us if we seem short on details for the purposes of our blog. If you are interested in learning more, you can click HERE to contact us. Without further adieu, here are this week’s pocket listings:
- Out of our pocket and over to you
To see this week’s pocket listings, continue reading –>
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Posted in Pocket Listings, Tips | Tagged off market listings, Pocket Listings, san francisco, san francisco real estate, secret listings | Leave a Comment »
December 3, 2008
Miraloma Park is smack in the middle of San Francisco (ok, maybe a smidge south). Home to many cute San Francisco houses and nestled in between Mt. Davidson and Glen Canyon Park, this area is especially attractive for families. We’re often surprised about how many people don’t know where this little area is. For your reference, we’ve got some maps below:
Miraloma Park - Stuck in the Middle With You
Miraloma Park Boundaries
We wanted to see what single family home prices have done in Miraloma Park over the past 14 years. We looked at the median sales price for each year starting in 1995, working our way up to 2008. Because we wanted to include 2008, we capped each year at December the 2nd, so we could have an even comparison. What type of trend did we find in Miraloma Park’s single family homes? Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Micro-Level Info, Miraloma Park, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged central san francisco, glen canyon park, median sales prices, Miraloma Park, mount davidson, san francisco, san francisco real estate, single family homes, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
December 3, 2008
We performed a detailed analysis of Noe Valley single family homes for our “In Search of Truth” series. If you are unfamiliar with our methodology, please read this. We looked at all sales within the past six months (6/2/08 thru 12/2/08) and here is the run down:
- A total of 56 single famly homes sold during this period, per the MLS.
- Looking through all the photographs, descriptions, and property histories of each of the 56 sales, only 4 qualified for the analysis. These are our “perfect pairs”.
- Stroller Valley back in the Spotlight
Based on these four representatives, how have Noe Valley single family homes fared recently?
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Posted in In Search of Truth, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Noe Valley | Tagged appreciation, case shiller, depreciation, market conditions, Noe Valley, san francisco, san francisco real estate, strollers, trends | Leave a Comment »
December 3, 2008
Today we toured the Millennium Tower, hard-hat on head and camera in hand, so we could bring you some shots of the views. Decent photography was a challenge– the windows have not been washed and I couldn’t avoid some of my own reflections. Nevertheless, we’re working with what we’ve got.
The sales center requested (and rightfully so) that we do not share pictures of the interiors as the building is still a construction site. However, the views are fair game and we can surely say they are breathtaking. We can’t wait to see the views at night, but for now, these will suffice. These shots are all from the penthouse level. Check ‘em out:
- Click to enlarge
- Click to enlarge
Keep reading for 4 more photos or to share this story –> Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Financial District, Neighborhood Info, New Developments, SoMa, Tips | Tagged 301 mission, condominiums, condos, fidi, financial district, highrise, millennium tower, mission, new development, penthouse, san francisco, san francisco real estate, soma, south financial district, views | Leave a Comment »
December 2, 2008
We looked at 6 months history (6/1/08 thru 12/1/08) for sales of Hayes Valley condos to see what the REAL days on market figures were. Using the methodology described here, here’s what we found:
- A total of 12 condos have sold in Hayes Valley in the past 6 months (resales only — this does not include new developments)
- The average time it took a condo to go into contract was 31 days
- The average time it took a condo to sell was 43 days
- The high was 83 days to a ratified contract, 111 days to SOLD
- The low was 5 days to a ratified contract, 8 days to a SOLD
- What did MLS say? Average days on market : 43 days.
We did not run into any situations for this particular query where MLS had left out previous marketing times (such as expired or withdrawn listings) in their numbers.
Hayes Valley condo liquidity : Frozen like cubes or flowing like water??
The Verdict: Hayes Valley condo resales have demonstrated good liquidity over the last 6 months. When average marketing times creep above 90 days for an area, this can signal problems for existing owners (but opportunities for buyers).
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Posted in Hayes Valley, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, The REAL Days on Market | Tagged analysis, condominiums, condos, days on market, dom, Hayes Valley, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
December 2, 2008
Welcome to “The REAL Days On Market.” Why are we writing this? To solve a glaring problem.
Will the real days on market please stand up, please stand up, please stand up
The Problem: We Realtors and appraisers count on information in the multiple listing service (MLS). We analyze all types of trends, such as sales prices, medians, averages, yada yada. However, there is one metric that is particularly tough to count on in the current system. That metric is Days on Market. What is Days on Market? Quite simply, it is the amount of time it takes from the date a property first hits the market to the time it sells.
Scenario 1: If 555 Main Street hits the market on January 1st, goes into contract on January 10th, goes into pending status January 20th, and closes on January 30th, here’s what MLS will tell you:
Days on Market for 555 Main Street: 20 days (yes, they are using the day it went into “pending” status)
My Gripe: This does not show how hot the property actually was. I think the day you have a ratified contract on the home is a better measure of how the market received it. I’d put this number at 10 days on market.
Scenario 2: Let’s say that 555 Main Street had been on the market for 90 days prior to the January 1st listing date, with another brokerage trying to sell the home. They were unable to sell it and the listing expired. It was then listed on January 1st, went into contract on January 10th, went into pending status January 20th, and closed on January 30th. What will MLS tell you?
Days on Market for 555 Main Street: 20 days
My Gripe: They left out the previous days of marketing time! Is this in some way insignificant? Not in my opinion. It should read 110 days, using their “pending” status date, or 100 days using my ‘moment it goes into contract’ status date. This does not show how cold the property was.
Either way, the whole picture is not being told. So we have a SOLUTION: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in The REAL Days on Market | Tagged days on market, dom, eminem, mls, multiple listing service, san francisco, san francisco real estate, trends | Leave a Comment »
December 2, 2008
Welcome to our first installment of “In Search of Truth”. If you are unfamiliar with how we arrive at the numbers we’re about to talk about, be sure to read about our methodology here.
Russian Hill Condos
In this edition, we set out on a mission to find out if condos in Russian Hill have been appreciating or depreciating. We went through all sales of Russian Hill condos over the past 6 months with a fine-toothed comb and here’s what we found:
- There were a total of 23 condo sales in Russian Hill in the past 6 months (6/1/08 to 12/1/08).
- Only 4 of the sales appeared to be in the exact same condition when they sold in 2008 versus when they were last sold (according to the MLS photos). We’ll call these “perfect pairs”.
- All other sales were left out of the analysis because they lacked photos, did not have a past sale to compare to, or had been completely remodeled between sales.
Based on these four perfect matches, did Russian Hill condos appreciate or depreciate? Here’s what we learned:
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Posted in In Search of Truth, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis, Russian Hill | Tagged appreciation, case shiller, condominiums, condos, depreciation, russian hill, san francisco, san francisco real estate, Tips, trends, truth | Leave a Comment »
December 1, 2008
We learned a lot about the Case-Shiller Index last week. Admittedly, we have not placed much faith in this particular index for the following reasons. First, it analyzes metropolitan area statistics. If you haven’t figured it out by now, we’re much more into neighborhood-level data, as we have found that neighborhoods truly are their own micro-markets, each behaving in their own way. Another reason we did not give Case-Shiller much credit is because they leave out condos, TIC’s, stock cooperatives, and lofts. The index is based upon single family home sales only. This is a big drawback.
- Your detective has arrived.
Despite these shortcomings, we read through the 40 page document describing the Case-Shiller methodology. There is certainly value in what they are attempting to do.
In short, they look at the sales price of a recently sold home and compare it to the previous sale of that same home. This allows them to see whether the home appreciated or depreciated, and at what rate. Comparing the home to itself controls for factors that can dirty data when comparing homes against other homes. When a particular home has a previous sale to which it can be compared, this called a “matched pair“. Case-Shiller takes thousands of matched pairs to come up with their overall metropolitan area (MSA) trend. The other brilliant thing about Case-Shiller is that they discard sales of homes that took place off-market, that were flipped (two sales too close together), and that had gains from major renovation projects or significant added square footage. Do they go through each listing manually to verify this? This answer is no. There is an algorithm that decides which matched pairs to keep and which ones to discard.
Case-Shiller does offer zip-code level based data. We called the provider (Fiserv) to purchase it so we could report on it and give it to you. However, only institutions can purchase the data and furthermore, they cannot reproduce or share the data with anyone else (per the user license).
SO – what we’ve done is come up with our own methodology, drawing from the positive aspects of the Case-Shiller Index and applying it to our micro-markets here in San Francisco. We’ll be reporting on each neighborhood as we go through them one by one. Is this painstaking? You bet. But we are in search of truth. And that’s what the series will be called… “In Search of Truth”.
Here’s a look at our methodology: Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in In Search of Truth | Tagged analysis, appreciation, cake, case shiller, depreciation, matched pairs, micro markets, neighborhoods, sales, san francisco, san francisco real estate, trends | Leave a Comment »
December 1, 2008
You may recall that on November 18 we submitted a poll for our readers to get your feedback on Tenancies in Common (TIC’s). After 12 days, we feel we have enough data to draw some conclusions.
Almost half of you said you would not own a TIC. This is pretty consistent with what we find by working in the industry. About 31% of you replied with some form of “maybe”, and 13% of you said “yes”. By our calculation, that makes 44% who would at least consider the possibility of owning a TIC.
Here’s a look at the results:
- TIC Poll Results
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Posted in Polls | Tagged poll, san francisco, san francisco real estate, tenancies in common, tenancy in common, tic, tics | Leave a Comment »
December 1, 2008
The Inner Mission (aka The Mission) is one of San Francisco’s most unique and happening neighborhoods. While it does suffer from higher crime than other parts of the City, that does not keep people from frequenting and living in this amazing area. Tons of great restaurants, bars, coffee houses, and clubs line the sidewalks for miles. Home to hipsters and habaneros, there’s something going on in the Mission 24 hours a day.
- The Inner Mission as seen from nearby Liberty Hill (click to enlarge)
We looked at median sales price trends for condominiums in the Mission over the past 14 years. Because the neighborhood caters to a younger crowd and is convenient to Penninsula commuters, we were especially curious to see how the dot com crash of ’01 affected median values in the nabe. What did we find? Read the rest of this entry ?
Posted in Getting Granular, Inner Mission, Micro-Level Info, Neighborhood Info, Nerdy RE Analysis | Tagged condos, Inner Mission, median sales prices, san francisco, san francisco real estate, the mission, Tips, trends | Leave a Comment »
