Archive for December 2nd, 2008

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The REAL days on market : Hayes Valley Condos

December 2, 2008

We looked at 6 months history (6/1/08 thru 12/1/08) for sales of Hayes Valley condos to see what the REAL days on market figures were.  Using the methodology described here, here’s what we found:

  • A total of 12 condos have sold in Hayes Valley in the past 6 months (resales only — this does not include new developments)
  • The average time it took a condo to go into contract was 31 days
  • The average time it took a condo to sell was 43 days
  • The high was 83 days to a ratified contract, 111 days to SOLD
  • The low was 5 days to a ratified contract, 8 days to a SOLD
  • What did MLS say?  Average days on market : 43 days.

We did not run into any situations for this particular query where MLS had left out previous marketing times  (such as expired or withdrawn listings) in their numbers.

Frozen like cubes or flowing like water??

Hayes Valley condo liquidity : Frozen like cubes or flowing like water??

The Verdict: Hayes Valley condo resales have demonstrated good liquidity over the last 6 months.  When average marketing times creep above 90 days for an area, this can signal problems for existing owners (but opportunities for buyers).

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Will the REAL days on market please stand up…

December 2, 2008

Welcome to “The REAL Days  On Market.”  Why are we writing this?  To solve a glaring problem.

Will the real days on market please stand up, please stand up, please stand up

Will the real days on market please stand up, please stand up, please stand up

The Problem: We Realtors and appraisers count on information in the multiple listing service (MLS).  We analyze all types of trends, such as sales prices, medians, averages, yada yada.  However, there is one metric that is particularly tough to count on in the current system.  That metric is Days on Market.  What is Days on Market?  Quite simply, it is the amount of time it takes from the date a property first hits the market to the time it sells.

Scenario 1: If 555 Main Street hits the market on January 1st, goes into contract on January 10th, goes into pending status January 20th, and closes on January 30th, here’s what MLS will tell you:

Days on Market for 555 Main Street:  20 days (yes, they are using the day it went into “pending” status)

My Gripe:  This does not show how hot the property actually was.  I think the day you have a ratified contract on the home is a better measure of how the market received it.  I’d put this number at 10 days on market.

Scenario 2: Let’s say that 555 Main Street had been on the market for 90 days prior to the January 1st listing date, with another brokerage trying to sell the home.  They were unable to sell it and the listing expired.  It was then listed on January 1st, went into contract on January 10th, went into pending status January 20th, and closed on January 30th.  What will MLS tell you?

Days on Market for 555 Main Street:  20 days

My Gripe:  They left out the previous days of marketing time!  Is this in some way insignificant?  Not in my opinion.  It should read 110 days, using their “pending” status date, or 100 days using my ‘moment it goes into contract’ status date.  This does not show how cold the property was.

Either way, the whole picture is not being told.  So we have a SOLUTION: Read the rest of this entry ?

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In Search of Truth : Russian Hill Condo Market

December 2, 2008

Welcome to our first installment of “In Search of Truth”.  If you are unfamiliar with how we arrive at the numbers we’re about to talk about, be sure to read about our methodology here.

Russian Hill Condos

Russian Hill Condos

In this edition, we set out on a mission to find out if condos in Russian Hill have been appreciating or depreciating.  We went through all sales of Russian Hill condos over the past 6 months with a fine-toothed comb and here’s what we found:

  • There were a total of 23 condo sales in Russian Hill in the past 6 months (6/1/08 to 12/1/08).
  • Only 4 of the sales appeared to be in the exact same condition when they sold in 2008 versus when they were last sold (according to the MLS photos).  We’ll call these “perfect pairs”.
  • All other sales were left out of the analysis because they lacked photos, did not have a past sale to compare to, or had been completely remodeled between sales.

Based on these four perfect matches, did Russian Hill condos appreciate or depreciate?  Here’s what we learned:

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