Welcome to Inside SF Real Estate – a local blog dedicated to bringing you real estate news, trends, stats, stories, and photography from around the City. Who writes Inside SF Real Estate? Read the rest of this entry »
State of the Market and MSI
March 21, 2010Current observations of the San Francisco residential real estate market (written on 3/21/2010):
1) Following the market crash of late ’08, confidence slowly began trickling back into the marketplace beginning in April 2009. Sales picked up through the summer and carried strong through the end of the year.
2) Many experts have called the “bottom”, but our view is that “bottom” takes place at different times for different price brackets. The low end of the market tends to feel the pain and hit bottom first, while the higher end of the market hangs on a little bit longer. Commercial lags everything, and may not hit bottom for a year or two.
3) The sentiment in today’s market is much better than around this time last year. Many new sales and pendings have led to the lowest MSI (months supply of inventory) on record in over two years. See the chart below:
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) - Local vs National - click to enlarge
4) Current inventory levels are 17% Read the rest of this entry »
Three Good Things
March 17, 20101) Good Price: 737 Cole hit the market about 14 days ago and struck us as being aggressively priced. With ~1/2 of San Francisco’s listings being grossly overpriced (in our humble opinion), it’s refreshing to see a home like this where the seller is realistic. The catch? Offers were due yesterday (Monday the 16th) and we think it’ll go over. The price? $1,895,000 for 4BR/3.5BA/2car parking in a fantastic location.
737 Cole is a well-priced beaut.
2) Good View: Read the rest of this entry »
And the Launch Is Official…
March 17, 2010If you’ve read any of our recent posts you are probably aware that my business has merged with another agent’s. It has been quite the challenge getting all our systems, data, and business processes integrated. New logos, website, marketing pieces, brochures, photos… the list goes on and on. Add to that our day jobs and keeping all this transparent to our clients (so they don’t feel a decline in service) has been seriously challenging. But we’re proud to say the end of our setup is in sight and hopefully that will free up more time to write.
In case you’re curious, our new business is called “Payton & Binnings, Inc.” of Sotheby’s. The team consists of Payton Stiewe, Arrian Binnings (me) and Sejal Binnings. We provide real estate buying, selling, investing, and consulting services to our clients in San Francisco and the Greater Bay Area. Here is a shot of our new profile, logo, and contact info. The new website is www.paytonbinnings.com.
Click to enlarge
Sales Volume in ’09 Hits New Low**
January 6, 2010Why the double asterisk? We’ll get to that in a moment.
Sales Volume Comparison (click to enlarge)
Observations:
- Single family home sales have been on the decline since 2003 and appear to have bottomed (or at least flattened) in ’08 & ’09.
- Condo sales volume tends to be more sensitive to market changes (hence the bumpier road) and continued to decline in ’09. Declines have been consistent since 2004.
- TIC sales volume has steadily increased over time, with a big push around 2004/2005, as Fractional Lending products became available. TIC volume dipped during the downturn along with other property types, but appears to have flattened.
Now, for those asterisks. As we zoom in and take a look at 2009, Read the rest of this entry »
Is InsideSFRealEstate Dead?
September 18, 2009The answer to that question is an emphatic NO. We are simply slammed right now. No spare time to comment on the market, but we assure you that when we come up for air, we’ll have plenty to talk about. Till then, it’s nose to the grindstone. Thanks for hanging in there.
-The Editors
Please bear with us while we get our noses get grinded to to a nub.
Getting Granular in Excelsior
September 3, 2009After writing “Getting Granular in Noe Valley” a couple days ago [which has received tons of hits], we figured it would make for a nice contrast to take a swing at Excelsior. Located just south of I-280, the nabe is home to many interesting people and houses. Jerry Garcia even once called the Excelsior home.
Excelsior street signs - Photos by Jef Poskanzer
Like Noe Valley, the neighborhood has posted a generous amount of sales in 2009, making it a good candidate for a trending analysis. And since it’s significantly different than Noe, it will be a fun little exercise.
Single family home medians (click to enlarge)
- The first thing I notice from this chart is how much smoother the line is compared to Noe’s, indicating that Excelsior may not be as sensitive to short-term perturbations in the market as Noe.
- Prices have fallen 32.34% from peak (in inflation adjusted terms), compared to Noe’s 22.05%. Read the rest of this entry »
Getting Granular in Noe Valley
September 1, 2009
Looking down towards Noe Valley - courtesy of Wikimedia
In Noe Valley there have been 85 single family home sales recorded in MLS for 2009. You know what that means! Time for a trending analysis, as we have a nice long string of sales for the year. What did we look at?
We calculated the median sales price for single family homes in Noe for the period of January 1 through September 1 of each year dating back to 1995. A trend became clear after plotting the values on a graph. But what about inflation? We added a second line to show what median values look like over the same time period when inflation is accounted for. The results?
Noe Valley SFH Trends (click to enlarge)
- In inflation-adjusted terms, Noe’s 2009 median is somewhere between 2003 and 2004.
- Values have come down 22.05% from peak. Read the rest of this entry »
Appraisers: The good, the bad, & the ugly.
August 28, 2009As many of you know, I used to be a real estate appraiser (and in a way, always will be). Appraisers are paid for their professional opinions, honesty, and expertise. If they are lacking in any of those three areas, well, they’re just not cut out for the job. I’ve heard a few stories about appraisers lately that made me cringe.
The Good: [Honest and expert] Appraisers not only protect banks from lending more than a home’s value, they also protect the buyer. Let’s say that a buyer is in contract on a home for $500K and the appraisal comes back at $400K. As a result, the buyer does not get their loan and they get angry with the appraiser. In actuality, they should be extremely thankful that the appraiser saved their butts from overpaying by 25%, but appraisers are rarely thanked. Instead, the appraiser gets bashed from the real estate agent (thanks for killing my deal), the buyer (hey, thanks, I lost my home), the seller (you imbecile, I was just about to cash in), and the loan officer (thanks pal, I’m not going to get my fee). If the appraiser is truly an expert, there should be nothing stopping them from doing honest work, including pressure from any of the aforementioned parties. Unfortunately, appraisers can be coerced and threatened (we’re not going to use your services anymore if you don’t hit our number!). This is the reason new regulations are in effect that limit who can talk to an appraiser.
The old days: "If you don't hit my number we're never using your services again!"
Let’s face it, if you have three different appraisals on a property, you’ll get three different values. Read the rest of this entry »
Tuesday Tour Show-Stoppers XVIII
August 26, 2009Another light week on the Tuesday tour… which is the calm before the post-Labor Day storm. Only four properties made four stars this week and one posted five.
Back yard of the week was a tie between 1871 Green and 946 Elizabeth. We had trouble deciding which one we’d rather be chilling in. 1871 Green is definitely a little more, well, green, and 946 Elizabeth has a fantastic patio with better sun. Both have their strong points and are pictured below.
1871 Green's back yard is something out of a fairy tale.
This photo under-represents the back yard at 946 Elizabeth, but we'll attest, it's gorgeous.
Sun drenched patio at 946 Elizabeth.
For the four and five star ratings of the week, continue reading. Click the bold address for additional info on any given property –>
1 Walkscore Point = 3,000 Bucks?
August 25, 2009Check out this article written by Amy Hoak via RISMedia. The article is entitled “Homes in Walkable Neighborhoods Sell For More“, and sheds light on the growing popularity of walkability as a desirable attribute for real estate (and real estate values).
This
..or this. You make the call.
RISMEDIA, August 22, 2009-(MCT)-Homes located within walking distance of amenities such as schools, parks and shopping aren’t only more convenient for their owners, often they’re also worth more than homes in neighborhoods where driving is the rule, according to a new study.
The report looked at 94,000 real-estate transactions in 15 markets. In 13 of those markets, higher levels of “walkability” were directly linked to higher home values. Read the rest of this entry »
Bernanke Upbeat on Economy
August 25, 2009Last Friday Bernanke delivered a speech spouting off the best news he’s given since the economy took a nose-dive.
“Economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the United States and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good,” Bernanke said at an annual Fed conference in Jackson.
Big Ben was cautious about his optimism, stating that the recovery was likely to be “relatively slow at first.”
“Although we have avoided the worst, difficult challenges still lie ahead,” he told the gathering of bankers, academics, and economists. “We must work together to build on the gains already made to secure a sustained economic recovery.”
Critics mentioned that Bernanke’s positive tone and optimistic outlook may have been motivated by his job’s expiration in early 2010. “When you go on an interview, you never speak of your shortcomings“, stated Richard Yamarone, economist with Yargus Research.
Whatever the case may be, the economy does seem to be turning a corner and we are certainly reading more positive articles. Whether the turnaround is genuine (or sustainable) remains to be seen. We like to remain cautious and most importantly, realistic.
What does this mean for local real estate? Our feeling is that opportunities will be around for a while for buyers. Maybe not low interest rates or tax credits, but the ability to buy low with less competition from other buyers will remain as long as credit remains tight. If your plan is to buy and hold long term, this is a good time.
-Excerpts taken from Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, “Fed chief upbeat on world economy“, published on Saturday, August 22, 2009.
Want some dismal news to balance Bernanke’s economic assessment? Check out Robert Kiyosaki’s “Preparing for the Worst“.
Bernanke in action
Feelin’ Blue?
August 24, 2009A couple of listings hit the market during the past few days that got us feeling blue. Here, have a look:
115 Nevada in Bernal Heights
115 Nevada is a cute little 1940′s home located in Bernal Heights. The 2 bedroom, 2 bath home is listed at $799,000. We’re partial to the paint job, which reminds us of the house in My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Throw in a few Ionic columns, marble statues, and a fountain, and let the bids roll in!
The actual house from My Big Fat Greek Wedding (note the blue and white Greek paint job-- classic!)
Our next blue home belongs to Read the rest of this entry »
Out Of Commish For A Few Days
August 18, 2009Dear Readers of Inside SF Real Estate:
We’re unpacking from a big move and trying to clear out some of these boxes so normal life can resume. We will be back in the swing of things in a few days. Thanks for your patience and readership!
-The Editors
Image courtesy of Running Spider
Real Estate Agents : The Lowest of the Low
August 14, 2009The Harris Poll just published its annual findings with respect to occupational prestige. This is reassuring if you’re a firefighter, scientist or doctor… not so much if you’re a stockbroker, accountant, or a real estate agent. The survey queries 1,010 U.S. people asking them what level of “prestige” they associate with different jobs. Here’s a look at the results from 2009:
Who's that all the way down there at the bottom? (click to enlarge)
From working in the industry, I can definitely see how this continues to be the public perception. I rub elbows everyday with other agents and brokers. My observation is that Read the rest of this entry »
Pocket Listings for 8/14/2009
August 14, 2009What is a pocket listing? A pocket listing is a home that is not being advertised to the general public through the MLS or a listing that will come on the market in the future but right now is still a secret. Many homes in San Francisco sell while off the open market, so pocket listing culture is a big deal. Each week, we’ll be sharing info about pocket listings that we know of (most of them anyway- some have to remain completely confidential).
Information on pocket listings is sparse and secretive, so pardon us if we seem short on details for the purposes of our blog. If you are interested in learning more about a particular listing you can click HERE to contact us. Without further ado, here are this week’s pocket listings:
- Out of our pocket and over to you
To see this week’s pocket listings, continue reading –>
